Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR): Price defining bullish 'flag'


Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), also known as Petrobras, is a petroleum company that finds, produces, refines, purchases and transports oil and gas products. It's domestic Brazilian operations involve more than 100 production platforms, sixteen refineries, almost 20,000 miles of pipeline and more than 6,000 gas stations. Subsidiaries invest in fuel alcohol, fertilizer and power generation endeavors. The firm's foreign units conduct exploration, production and supply operations throughout the Americas and Africa. The Brazilian government owns 32% of Petrobras and controls 56% of its voting shares. BP plc (NYSE: BP), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) are competitors.

Investors came to attention earlier in the week, when the head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency said that Petrobras and partners Repsol-YPF (NYSE: REP) and BG Group had made what may be the world's biggest oil discovery in at least 32 years. The Carioca find was said to contain up to 33 billion barrels of oil and gas. That would make it the third largest oil field in the world, with a capacity topping all the proven reserves in the United States (29.9 billion barrels). Petrobras officials have been cautious in their appraisals, saying that further drilling would be needed before any meaningful estimate of volumes could be made. The CEO said they would have a clearer idea of size in two to three months.

PBR shares popped on the news and have since been consolidating the gain in a bullish "flag" pattern. Equities frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

The PBR Price to Cash Flow ratio (10.96), Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (24.56), Sales Growth rate (129.88%), EPS Growth rate (155.10%), Operating Margin (24.75%), Net Profit Margin (16.84%), Return on Assets (15.65%), Return on Investment (20.10%) and Return on Equity (31.85%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions hold about 14% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $48.75 and $126.07. A stop-loss of $107.00 looks good here. Note that the next Petrobras earnings announcement is expected in mid-May.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned above.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 11:14 AM

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