Last October, the Shanghai Composite was over 6,000. It now trades at 3,095. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "The plunge has slashed the savings of millions of Chinese investors who jumped into the market as it rose six-fold in two years." The drop will also make it more difficult for companies in the world's most populated country to raise money.
While investors have been beaten up in the China market, the real question is whether the movement is any indication of what will happen in the broader economy this year. Some economists believe that stock market moves anticipate later increases or decreases in GDP and other measurements of financial health.
In China, the market may indeed portend what may happen in the balance of the year. The country's economic growth has already begun to slow. It is still robust, at about 10%, but that is married with inflation which is about 8%. For food and certain other consumers goods price increases are closer to 20%. An economy cannot survive forever on rampant inflation. At some point the central bank must increase interest rates to cool buying power.
Price increases in China would be even sharper if the government did not underwrite the costs of gasoline and diesel.
The other issue facing the Chinese economy is the it cannot be decouple from the West. A deep recession in the U.S. and Europe will hurt exports from China, and that will drive a sharp cut in its GDP. China's growth rate is almost certain to slow.
And, that will make the Shanghai Composite drop even further.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-19-2008 @ 7:27PM
andero9 said...
i thought inflation was too much money and a scarcity of goods?
4-20-2008 @ 2:32PM
gumbo koontz said...
CHINA SHOULD HAVE CUT BACK ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION. CHINA DROVE UP THE ENERGY COSTS BY KEEPING MONEY LOSERS RUNNING. CHINA ARE BETTER OFF SHUTTING DOWN LOSER SMELTERS EVEN IF IT WILL MEAN HIGH ALUMINIUM PRICES. WE CAN FIND WAYS TO RECYCLE ALUMINIUM . OVERALL, WE WOULD BE USING LESS ENERGY AND OIL PRICES WOULD BE LOWER . WE BLAME IRAQ WAR FOR HIGH OIL PRICES. WE SHOULD BLAME MONEY LOSING ALUMINIUM SMELTERS FOR HIGH ENERGY COSTS AS WELL. WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE ENOUGH ALUMINIUM BUT WE WILL SAVE A HECK OF ENERGY !!! WE ARE BUILDING SMELTERS TOO SLOWLY. NEW SMELTERS ARE MUCH MORE EFFICIENT BUT AT $1.20 POUND, WE CANT AFFORD TO BUILD NEW $5 BILLION SMELTERS THAT SAVE A LOT OF ENERGY OVER OLDER SMELTERS. WE JUST CANT OWN UP TO REALITY SO WE KEEP ON MAKING MISTAKES AND FIXES TO KEEP OUR ECONOMY GOING.. BUY ALCOA!!
4-20-2008 @ 2:36PM
gumbo koontz said...
ALCOA JUST SPENT $600 MILLION ON ITS OWN COAL FIRED POWERPLANT TO MAKE IT RUN CLEANER SO TO KEEP SMELTER GOING. ALCOA BELIEVE IN THE FUTURE. ALCOA WANT TO RUN CLEAN BUSINESS AND ALCOA MADE THE HARD AND RIGHT DECISIONS ALL ALONG. WHAT ABOUT CHINA?? IT WILL SHUT DOWN DIRTY SMELTERS YET WALL STREET INVEST IN CHIALCO????? HEY, WHAT YOU KIDDING YOURSELVES ABOUT??
4-20-2008 @ 4:41PM
Allen said...
gumbo, your caps lock is on.....
And to andero9, inflation is really just too much money. You can have to few goods causing prices to go up, but thats scarcity. Real inflation is when so much money is on the market that prices naturally trend upward to nab it.
Example: say interest rates are low, and people borrow oodles of money. When one person gets a ten thousand dollar loan, and spends $9000 of it, it becomes someone elses $9000. That person spends it.
Eventually the money is spent and respent. Look up "Money Multiplier" and "Money Supply" for more. Wikipedia has a good article right now, but of course you should look for sources that are not editable by just anyone.
As far as Inflation in China, since when? Where have I been since the Chinese market started tanking?