While most of us are pretty amazed at just how high oil prices have risen recently (ended the week at $116.69), one man thinks that oil is still pretty cheap compared to its true value. According to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, oil prices have yet to hit fair value.
Speaking in front of an oil and gas exhibition in Tehran, Iran's President stated that the Western world was "selfish" in its desire to obtain cheap oil. A big reason for the recent run up in oil prices can be attributed to the weak U.S. dollar, and Ahmadinejad definitely made it a point to bring up the weak currency, calling the dollar "a handful of paper" with no global support.
While I take most of what I hear from the Iranian President with a grain of salt, as far as the dollar is concerned, he does make a decent point. Over-exaggerated, yes, but still a valid point. The dollar has been steadily falling and with more interest rates on the horizon it will only weaken further as the year progresses.
Iran is one of a handful of countries that have opted to sell its oil to the outside world in euros as opposed to the dollar, a trend that America is hoping will not continue to spread to other oil-rich nations.
When we talk about oil prices, one thing that is never completely apparent is how today's prices compare to the early '80s on an inflation-based comparison. From what I have seen from many sources, the inflation adjusted highs from 20 years ago can be translated to about $103 a barrel. While these figures definitely vary depending on what source you are reading, I have never seen any inflation adjusted numbers that were above the $110 range, much less the $115 range where prices are hovering now.
But that did not stop the Iranian president from concluding that oil is cheaper now than the inflation adjusted highs a couple decades ago.
I do agree with Ahmadinejad on one fact: oil prices will be headed higher over the next couple of months as we enter the peak demand summer months. Whether or not prices will be able to maintain their current levels in the long run is another question. Unlike the Iranian president, I do not think that oil can maintain these levels. Once the dollar starts to recover, oil prices will definitely come back down to earth. Just how far down they will go remains to be seen.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-19-2008 @ 2:11PM
Michael Schneider said...
The dollar strengthened Friday but oil still headed higher on Nigeria- see prior item. Commentators were saying to expect oil to drop off a bit this week if there is no further trouble in Nigeria this weekend. Every time oil has moved down though it has come back up.
4-19-2008 @ 3:22PM
CP said...
Oil producing countries and oil companies have forgotten one thing, if we run out of oil, they have no industry, their trillions of dollars will be worth nothing. Shouldn't oil companies be worried?
The catch is that oil companies feel that they have enough time for inflation to cripple the US dollar to a point that they can line their pockets with as much as possible; and why waste their worthless dollar(today) on better technology when "John Doe" will end up coming up with the technology in his garage on a government Grant. Now I'm all for the "small businesses", however in the end they will sell the technology to the oil companies at a rediculously low charge, the nation will adapt to the new technology, the dollar will soar and all the money that they have "horded" from us now will be worth more than even they can imagine. I'll take solar panels on my car and roof of my house, I'll also take four windmills in my backyard regardless of neighborhood ordinance.
From the time my mother began driving in 1971 to when I started driving in 1998, the price for unleaded at the pump went up from .25 to .65. I have watched gas go from .65 to 3.49 in my 10 year driving span.
Screw Iran, OPEC, the oil companies, and oil in general. Quit spending trillions on the war, (notice I didn't say "pull out"), quit sending money to China, Russia, and the Middle East, and bring the dollar back up so I can pay US$1.00 at the pump.
4-19-2008 @ 4:54PM
VernonLRileyJr said...
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a physical as well a mental midget who, typical of those in that part of the world, overloads his ass with what comes out of his mouth.
4-19-2008 @ 5:29PM
stanley austin said...
The Iran president wants to cause everyone to go bankrupt. I am on a fixed income and inflation keeps on taking more and more. What am I going to do 10 yrs from now. Right now I make too much for "food Stamps." In 10 yrs I may qualify but will there be any to "give out?"
4-19-2008 @ 5:34PM
Texmac said...
IRAN's so called President is a muslim on crack,
4-19-2008 @ 5:35PM
Texmac said...
The pain that most of america feel when they fill there tanks in the BIG-SUV's and auto's is self inflected, 6 yrs ago I sold all my gas hogs and got a Vibe, @ pontiac, built by Toyota, 36mpg road, 28 town, (Its a TOYOTA), fun to drive, not one problem @ 110000 miles,plan to buy a new one @ 300000 miles.
4-19-2008 @ 7:10PM
Zeke said...
Those of you who feel you only have to get rid of your gas guzzler to absorb the high cost of gasoline are kidding yourself. How do you intend to absorb the increasing cost of food, airline, train and bus transportation? what about the increase in cost of fuel to heat and cool your home? I suppose the military should get rid of the Humvees they are using in Iraq. They are certainly gas hogs. Fighter jets and bombers burn fuel by the ton. what do you suggest we do about that?
4-19-2008 @ 8:02PM
william lindblad said...
This guy says anything that - a.) is against the U.S. and b.) anything that is against Israel. The only thing that is consistent about this screwball is that he hates both - equally.
He just jacked the price of gas in his own country (to the residents disdain), but don't worry Mah-Mah knows best.
To the Bush beaters - You think we have a problem - how would you like to have this guy!!!
4-19-2008 @ 10:06PM
thermo said...
Ahmadinejad is not wrong in trying to up the price of oil. Oil is their country's main souce of revenue. Money is power in this world. Just drive less and as a country be more resourceful in energy consumption.
4-19-2008 @ 10:16PM
simba said...
Ahmadinejad is not wrong in trying to up the price of oil. Oil is their country's main souce of revenue. Money is power in this world. Just drive less and as a country be more resourceful in energy consumption.
4-19-2008 @ 10:21PM
shaun said...
I can see oil go up even further. It hasn't stopped yet. That is why alternate energy is a must for the future.
http://www.stocks-simplified.com
4-20-2008 @ 5:18AM
PETE DELL said...
WHILE CONGRESS HOLDS ON TO ITS DREAM OF ELECTRIC CARS AND CONSERVATION. THOSE OF US IN THE REAL WORLD KNOW THAT ONLY MORE DOMESTIC EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION WILL LOWER PRICES. STOP BLAMING THE OIL THE COMPANIES FOR LIBERAL PIPE DREAMS AND STUPIDITY. BIG OIL HAS PROVIDED THIS WITH OUR GREAT NATION WITH CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL SUPPLIES OF ENERGY FOR A HUNDRED YEARS. WHILE I BELIEVE TECHNOLOGY AND INOVATION WILL WIN OUT OVER STUPIDITY ON THE LEFT. ONLY MORE DOMESTIC SUPPLIES HELP IN THE NEAR TERM. UNTIL WERE WILLING TO USE LESS, DRILL MORE AT HOME JUST SHUT AND SEND YOUR DOLLARS OVERSEAS.
4-20-2008 @ 10:36AM
MyKisa said...
Bakkens oil field, N Dakota=200-400 billion barrels
4-21-2008 @ 9:50AM
fred haeberle said...
Iran doesn't have enough refineries to produce all the gasoline they need. If he feels this way, why don't we make sure he doesn't get any more gasoline imported. Good enough
4-21-2008 @ 11:40PM
John said...
Oil is too cheap. He's 100% correct.
People can forget about oil ever being cheap again. Only a global recession would cause that, and the cheap price would last just a few months past the end of that recession. In any future growth economy, oil will get aggressively more expensive.
Lee Raymond, the recently retired CEO of ExxonMobil, used to suggest conservation would be a very good idea. Nobody was listening. Of course, he wasn't exactly shouting it. He would put it out there, take it or leave it, and the United States of America ignored him.
Well, they ain't ignorin' him now.
This country has made horrific gasoline decisions for 40 years. Scientists have been warning us, and we called them pinheads. There were some pinheads, but it wasn't the scientists.
4-25-2008 @ 3:33AM
Chapelon2 said...
Conservation is always a good idea. The technical way to do conservation is High Efficiency Integrated Heat Engine (HEIHE). With HEIHE, higher engine efficiency will let you enjoy helf-priced gasoline any time and anywhere. Please invest in HEIHE: www.heitech.com
4-25-2008 @ 5:45PM
Marc A. said...
I do not understand why the government doesn't put any pressure on OPEC to increase the oil supply. And they keep filling the SPR at these high prices. Until they do something about it, you just have to take advantage and invest in Energy stocks. I like the Nat Gas stocks in the short term. They are on fire!
www.TheMarketNewsletter.com
4-27-2008 @ 10:05PM
y.shuman said...
why dont people ever complain about paying over 10 percent of the price of gas for tax?
4-29-2008 @ 11:36AM
tom merritt said...
I say nuke this little hitler....then enslave those people like we should have...remember who got the oil out of the ground for them....WHITE people not arab camel jockeys......THEN TAKE A-L-L of their oil for pennies a barrel.....death to all ragheads
5-03-2008 @ 3:26PM
Ricahard said...
Lets see here. one brain surgeon mentions the Tax on gas is 10%, sorry its $.18 , thats about 3-4%. Another Genious is saying that Iran is raising its gas prices, well the consumer in iran pays about $.89 a gallon, because the government owns the oil companies and sells it at no profit to help the people while Exxon/Mobile makes 11 billion dollars a quarter, thats equates to 44 billion a year by the was to only one company. If we put that money into rebates on gas, the price would go down insstead of lining the pockets of Washintons friends at Exxon/Mobile
Another brain surgeon thinks if Opec produces
more, the price will go go down, well there is plenty of supply my freind, if Opec doubles production the price will increase anyway.
The main reason gas is so high is exactly what the Ahmadinejad said about the value of the American dollar, it is worth "Nothing" on the international market because of the huge debt that Bush has created because of the private war he created and the poor state of the economy which he also created.
Oh and none of the brain surgeons think that Bush giving huge subsidies to the Corn growers to produce ethynol is an interestin idea even though the cost to make ethynol is more then the fuel is ises to produce it and the fact that now the farmers stopped growing anything except corn and the food prices have soured, gee what a great idea, piss money away growning corn to make ethynol which is an impossibility to ever replace gasoline and cuase the price of wheat and rice to double. Your hero Bush is a real genious and you still love jhim don't you.
Its sad that all the brain surgeons here are waving the great American flag and touting their hero Bush and can't see past their noses as to why gas prices are so high, I feel sorry for all the genious's here, they need a lesson in civics and economics.