A bear on banking repents


Charles Peabody, a famous banking analyst, has been down on the prospects of financial companies for a number of quarters. He now sees some of the stocks in the sector as good buys.

Peapody's change of heart may be coming at the wrong time. A number of observers believe that it is healthy that firms like Citigroup (NYSE:C) are taking huge write-offs. But, if the housing and credit markets keep falling, losses could still balloon.

According to Reuters, Peabody, a widely-followed expert says "Bank shares could rise 35 to 45 percent on average from their first-quarter lows, amid signs the housing market might be bottoming out."

Peabody's thinking is based on a premise that is probably flawed. He sees the recession as making a bottom now. Any near-term recovery should indeed aid bank stocks.

With energy and commodity prices rising, consumers in trouble with debt, unemployment moving higher, and a weak dollar, it is hard to see how Peabody draws his conclustions.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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