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Bank of America's huge whiff

Bloomberg News reports that Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) missed earnings expectations by 44%. Specifically, its first-quarter net income declined to $1.21 billion, or 23 cents a share, from $5.26 billion, or $1.16 a share in 2007. The 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected the bank to make 41 cents a share. The bank experienced a huge rate of late credit card payments in its $81 billion credit-card portfolio -- 5.8% compared with an industry average of 4.1%.

Bank of America's problem is its exposure to the housing market. Assuming 2% of its home-equity loans are uncollectible this year, the cost may be $2.3 billion according to a Fitch Ratings analyst. If the bad loans reach 5%, the damage could total $5.9 billion. Meanwhile, Bank of America is still on track to buy Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE: CFC) which had $34 billion in home-equity loans at the end of 2007.

Both Bank of America and Countrywide have home-equity loans concentrated in the regions with the most foreclosure filings. California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida are the four states where housing prices are sliding faster than the national average -- ranking among the top 10 states with the most foreclosure filings in March.

Bank of America has been fortunate to gain access to the capital markets. Before today, Bank of America had raised $13 billion worth of capital from public investors after write downs and credit losses that totaled at least $8.2 billion. But with shares down 1.7% in pre-market, Bank of America's cost of capital looks to be on the rise along with the fall in the real estate market.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 08:35 AM

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