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Will the Saudis run low on oil?

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The Saudis will shortly open one of the largest oil fields in the world for production. That would seem to be good news, but it may be the last big deposit of crude left in the country. And, getting it online has cost $15 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Even in Saudi Arabia, home to more than a quarter of the world's known recoverable reserves, the age of cheap and easily pumped oil is over."

In a period where oil now sells for $117 a barrel, the largest single question is whether global oil production has peaked. There are very few new, large fields being found now. Recently, Brazil said it has discovered one off its coast, but that is in very deep water. Getting to the crude will be expensive, and some of it may be beyond reaching at all.

Part of the rise in oil prices probably has nothing to do with current supply, but it may well anticipate a fall-off in crude production in years to come. Developing nations like China and India are still increasing their consumption. Without large new deposits to develop, there is every reason to expect that oil reserves may start to fall a decade from now.

There is nothing to replace that.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: July 05, 2009: 05:00 PM

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