Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) ... the name is synonymous with high-tech and high touch. It has surely been on a roll ... no need for me to tell you that. Tonight, is the real deal, the make it or break it. The question of whether the economic slowdown is going to have any real effect on Mac, iPhone and/or iPod sales.The word is that iPod sales have been declining because of the continuing increase in iPhone sale. Why would anyone want a traditional iPod if they can have it all with the iPhone or iTouch anyway? This is no news to anyone that follows Apple. So, what do you say we discount that conversation entirely.
Macbook sales have been on fire. The latest update to this line has sent PC laptops to the junkyard as potential buyers who were on the fence have gladly jumped over, head first. (Disclosure: I am a happy jumper!) To the delight of most users, the most concerning aspect of the transition was painless. The fear of not having a Windows machine was put to rest as companies like VMWare (NYSE: VMW) provided virtualization programs that allowed for a seamless experience within a dual operating environment.
The biggest surprise that occurred was that Mac OSX was quick to learn and many never actually used the Windows crutch past the first few weeks. That was bad news for VMWare and other companies in the virtualization business. ( See VMWare: A WallStreet Chainsaw Massacre) . But what is in store for Apple over the next few quarters?
If the other hardware companies that reported earnings the past few days have anything to show it is the fact that a weak dollar is a tech company's best friend. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), IBM (NYSE: IBM) and even the software behemoths such as Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) have done quite well in these difficult conditions. But again, what is in store for Apple?
The question is actually a clue to the answer. A riddle of sorts, but perhaps the best indicator of the future is the fact that Apple still maintains a close relationship with its customers through a wonder online connection as well as IN STORE. Yes IN STORE.
If you have had the opportunity to shop in any mall lately, you will notice that the stores are rather empty. Many analysts are suggesting that the recession has taken hold and consumers are not buying as they once did. Wallets empty, they are trying their best to scrape together the money to pay for the overpriced rice and wheat that are staples of their diet.
But I have a much bolder suggestion: The reason that the malls are empty is not due to a recession. It is not due to the housing crisis, but rather it is the fact that everyone is in the Apple store! Have you seen what is going on there? Usually you would think that Apple is giving something away, but if you know anything about Apple, you realize that, as a usual course of action, the company does not discount.
So, if the stores are a proxy for the actual sales, the limp dollar will benefit Apple for the next few quarters. As we have seen by this week's mini-rebound, there are many who still believe in the brand and the company. I am one of them. Our price target remains at $210 and I continue to believe that the underlying story is solid. We believe that Apple should be able to beat on revenue and earnings.
The P/E of 35 is comparatively high, but forward P/E of 31 brings the PEG, just below 1. Not an expensive stock at this price. What do you think?
Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients hold LONG positions of AAPL, MSFT, INTC as of the date of publish. BUT, they do have LONG positions in MSFT, APPL and INTC.
Andrew Horowitz is a Money manager and author of the bestseller - The Disciplined Investor - Essential Strategies for Success. Click for The Disciplined Investor Blog.










