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Aflac (AFL) rises as Q1 earnings beat estimates

AFL logoAFLAC Inc. (NYSE: AFL) shares are trading higher after the company posted a first-quarter profit of $474 million, or 98 cents per share, above analysts' estimates of 96 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AFL.

After hitting a one-year low of $48.79 last April, the stock hit a one-year high of $68.81 last week. AFL opened this morning at $66.26. So far today the stock has hit a low of $66.23 and a high of $67.85. As of 10:15, AFL is trading at $67.42, up $2.34 (3.6%). The chart for AFL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just four months as long as AFL is above $55 at August expiration. Evergreen would have to fall by more than 18% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

AFL hasn't been below $55 since October and has shown support around $61 recently. This trade could be risky if the slumping economy continues, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find from its 200-day moving average, which is currently around $60 and rising.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AFL.

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Last updated: August 29, 2008: 06:15 PM

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