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Chevron (CVX) dips as oil relaxes slightly

CVX logoChevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) shares are falling as a strengthening American dollar and a higher U.S. crude supplies have helped to bring down oil futures from their recent record highs. If you think oil may have topped and this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CVX.

After hitting a one-year high of $95.50 in September, the stock hit a one-year low of $76.40 in January. This morning, CVX opened at $93.88. So far today the stock has hit a low of $92.69 and a high of $93.99. As of 10:10, CVX is trading at $92.69, down $1.79 (-1.9%). The chart for CVX looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $105 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in two months as long as CVX is below $105 at June expiration. Chevron would have to rise by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

CVX hasn't been above $96 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $95 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil skyrockets again, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance CVX might find around $95, where it has topped out twice before in the past year.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CVX.

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Last updated: October 11, 2008: 10:54 AM

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