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My best stock ideas: Looking through Q2 and into the second half of 2008

Wall Street exchangeI've received a few chuckles for investment directions I've suggested in the past, but if you care to review a couple of my previous generalities, I believe that my record has held up fairly well.

I submit for approval the following investment angles for the balance of 2008 and possibly beyond:

Have I suggested investments in water holdings? Yes, I do believe that I have. I believe that going long in water stocks could be an investment hedge of the decade. I also suggest a look into the desalination technology from General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).

I'd think it's a good idea to stick with the railroads, such as Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI). I claim that, with all things given, for now, railroads can't fail. Conversely, I think it's a good time to back away slowly from trucking. I think misery lies ahead there.



In retail, for investors who haven't already, I believe that it's time to exit the high end sector. Shorts sellers can probably clean up nicely on the way out. I'd look for the specialty retail stocks which are artificially high and consider shorting them now. It may be prudent to move retail bets to companies such as, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) for it's incredible staying power, and Overstock Com Inc., (NASDAQ: OSTK) for it's much maligned growth potential. Both these stocks could benefit greatly from the tightening consumer spending environment.

Oats and rice are ticking up, but the best rice boat may have already sailed. I'd stick with these and other commodity grains as strong short term plays, pulling the profits as contracts expire. Then I'd consider returning the initial investment for another go around. I'd play the companies which consume grain commodities with a light hand. Profits will be stretched as commodities continue to surge. One possible exception might be Altria Group Inc.(NYSE: MO), which has been beaten down badly. However, I wouldn't get caught with all my eggs in that one basket.

I fear that it may be time to back out of consumer electronics, except possibly for Apple Inc.(NASDAQ: AAPL) and Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL). Yes, mobile devices are going to keep moving but I don't think there will be much profit growth there for a while. Gaming devices are still selling strong but I think their profitability is going the way of the albatross. Heavy research is required in this sector. There's not much "cutting edge" going on which I consider worthy of extra attention.

Someone will hate me for this, but I say that it's time to exit gold. Do we really need to suffer though yet another bubble burst? Smart working capital is going into real consumables. Gold is fast becoming a well oiled trap, in my humble opinion.

There may be some good speculative plays in the home improvement sector on stocks which have totally bottomed out. People are going to be staying close to home for awhile. It might be the right time to take advantage of that.


Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger with no professional stock-picking credentials (which may be an asset, depending on your point of view). With the possible exception of Overstock.com, via Vanguard Capital Management, he does not knowingly have interest in the companies mentioned in this blog post.

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Last updated: May 11, 2008: 11:39 PM

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