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Comfort Zone Investing: What to buy, what to sell

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

I read an article that was explaining some of the credit problems financial institutions have. It went into the mortgage mess, the concerns for coming credit card collections and home equity loans. It was good and helpful to anyone interested in knowing more about potential problems for banks and thrifts. Then I read one of the reader's replies: More big picture stuff, just tell me what to buy tomorrow morning.

This one reader speaks for many others. Every investor would love to know what to buy now. They just want the name of a stock that will go up. And they don' want to have to research it or know anything else about it. Just a name. Give me a name. Ah, if it were that easy.

But it's not. No one can give you the name of a stock that will positively go up in the morning. That's impossible. Even a name of a stock that will go up over time isn't available. Because no one can foretell the future. Furthermore, what might be the right name for the writer may be the absolutely wrong name for the reader. Why? Because both will have different circumstances, different risk profiles, different needs.

So I'm going to help all investors who want to know what to buy and what to sell. As Will Rogers said: Buy the stocks that are going up. If they don't go up, don't buy them. But seriously folks, here's what you might consider buying and/or selling for investing, not trading.

If you're conservative and want to preserve your capital as the paramount reason for investing and you have no tolerance for risk: sell or don't buy the financial stocks. Sell the technology stocks. Buy defensive stocks such as consumables (KO, PEP, PG, CL) and drug makers (MRK, PFE, LLY, ABT). Of course, you don't just go out and buy those. You need to research each one to determine if you're comfortable in owning it. If you want income, check the dividend and make sure it's not taking up too much of the earnings to pay so you've got a fairly safe bet that you'll keep getting the quarterly payment.

If you're more risk oriented and don't mind losing some of your capital with the chance that you could make a lot more, then reverse the above. Buy a little of many different financials. Sell the defensive stocks. You'll have more volatility in your portfolio and need to have a strong stomach to ride the crashes and rockets that these investments entail. But you'll make a lot of money if you can hang on and see how all of this credit mess resolves. Some of the financials you buy will not make it. Some will be merged. Some will finally pull out victorious and reward investors with very high returns. Which ones? No one knows. But if you have enough of them, you'll find out.

One more thing: when an investors such as the writer who just wanted to know what to buy acts on stock recommendations without research, they never have anyone to tell them when to sell. Be smarter than that. Look for good ideas. Research each one before you buy.

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Last updated: July 06, 2008: 07:17 AM

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