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What will you do when gasoline hits $6.67 a gallon?

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AP reports that Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) predicts that the price of a barrel of oil could climb from its current $120 to as high as $200. That's not too much of a stretch because since January 2001, that price has risen 400% from $24. A rise to $200 would be a mere 67% increase from the current price. Meanwhile gasoline is likely to hit $4 a gallon this summer -- and if oil hit $200 a barrel, that could drive the price to $6.67 a gallon -- up 319% from the $1.59 it cost back in January 2001.

Why is the price of oil going up so much? Experts don't seem to know and I'm not an expert. But it looks like simple supply and demand does not explain such a rapid price rise. Some cite rising energy demand -- from China and India -- combined with a reduction in supply -- e.g., production declines in Mexico, an unstable oil industry in Venezuela and possible shrinking production capacity in the Middle East -- as a partial explanation.

But then there are the other factors that seem hard to measure -- the potential decline in the dollar, political instability (such as the U.S. firing warning shots at two Iranian boats in the Persian Gulf this week), and so-called speculators. Of all these factors, the speculators explanation is the most interesting. These could be hedge funds and commodities traders who borrow huge amounts of money to bid up oil prices.

Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Cambridge, MA expects prices to fall as low as $80 in 2008 and perhaps as low as $50 by 2012 as more global supply comes on line. I am inferring that he thinks that these speculators account for the gap between the current price and that justified by supply and demand.

Some rough calculations suggest that these rising gasoline prices are going to squeeze the average American family even more. If gasoline hits $6.67 a gallon in the next year or so, that would mean $133.40 to fill up a 20-gallon tank. For a commuter who fills up the tank twice a week, that would be $266.80 a week -- which is 320% more than the $63.60 that commuters paid back in January 2001.

The result of this increase will put the screws to the typical American family's monthly budget. The median family took in about $45,560 after tax in 2007 (assuming a 28% tax rate on median income of $60,500) -- or $838 a week (dividing that by 52). Since median income is about the same now as it was in 2000, that means that a twice a week fill up was 7.6% of weekly income in 2000 and is 31.8% now.

I am not sure how much the median family pays for food and utilities each week but I think $6.67 a gallon gasoline will force those families to stop buying other things. Such discretionary items might include going out to restaurants, taking vacations, and buying new clothes. How are you coping with the rising price of gasoline? What will it take to bring the price down?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Goldman Sachs securities.

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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 04:18 AM

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