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The Week in Preview: All eyes on the Fed

Next week is sure to be filled with fun and volatile market conditions. The highlight will be the Fed decision on key rates, due on Wednesday, April 30, following a two-day meeting. Anytime the Fed has the floor, the markets listen. Tuesday and Wednesday will be filled with speculation up until the time of the announcement of a cut or pause.

There are many possible outcomes for this meeting, as we have seen a substantial change in investor sentiment regarding the potential need for further rate cuts. The buzz on the street is for a cut of 25 basis points and then a wait-and-see attitude from there. I think that is the most likely direction.

There has been a great deal of concern that all the recent rate cuts have not provided the benefit to consumers the economy needs. Clearly, there is a fatty clog within our financial circulatory system. Traditionally, the Fed likes to see how its actions trickle into the economy before it continues too far down one path, which would argue for a pause now. Plus, the Fed does not want to run out of ammunition by cutting rates too far too fast. But there is no question that we are dealing with a more aggressive Fed than we have seen in decades, so I think we will see another small rate cut.

After the Fed announcement, earnings will again take center stage. Watch out for surprises as investors have been bidding up stocks with a vengeance. Misses have been taken in stride as investors don't seem worried about large bank failures anymore. The truth is, the Fed has created a monster with its bailout policy and I'm worried stocks are getting overpriced here.

It is going to be a busy week for earnings as the season is in full swing. Here is a day-by-day look at the week ahead at some of the opportunities investors may want to consider.

Monday April 28

Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) will be reporting. While this is not an exceptionally exciting report, it is one that will help to provide insight of just how bad the food crisis is and how the corn shortage is effecting profits. Last week we saw a considerable take-down for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) after it explained its outlook. First Call is expecting only $.01 EPS on $6.69 billion revenue as compared to EPS of $.19 for the same quarter last year.

Fair Issac Corp. (NYSE: FIC) has been in the hot seat as it is the company that created the FICO score. You know, the beloved company that provides lenders your credit rating/score. There has been quite a fallout over the ability of this company to properly gauge credit risk. The chart shows a recovery pattern filling toward the January gap-down. This is similar to what we have seen for many others that have rocketed on earnings lately.

If FIC manages to hit earnings, shares could get a nice pop. Shares are down 40% or so since November, and this report will show us how many lenders are looking to other companies to provide the data. Competitors taking over some of FIC's business may include the likes of Equifax Inc. (NYSE: EFX) and Experian Group Ltd. (LSE: EXPN). First Call is expecting $.43 per share on revenue of $204 million.

With that in mind, the credit card business is booming! Why you ask? People who are having trouble getting money these days are spending in a reckless manner with plastic. The winners here are Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) and Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA). Remember, neither of these companies has exposure to default as they are only processors of the transactions. There has been some talk about the negative effects that will be felt due to the Delta-Northwest merger as they will probably look to consolidate the card offering. What that really means to Visa is anyone's guess at this point.

On deck today are both Visa and Mastercard. The estimates are looking for an EPS of $1.99, up from a year ago of $1.57. Revenues are expected to come in at $1.06 billion. Visa is reporting its first earnings since it went public in March. There is a great deal of positive buzz on this name. Watch out as expectations are for a good number which could just as easily sink the stock if investors are disappointed. First Call estimates $.46 for the period.

Tuesday April 29

Food costs are out of control. Pizza inflation is the new buzzword and Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) may continue to benefit from this new paradigm. It is expected to show a 50% increase in EPS to $.70 this quarter and revenues will rise to $12.45 billion. That is a lot of food product.

The theme continues on with Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) reporting. As mentioned above, food costs are eating away at restaurant profits and there could be a big disappointment brewing for this name. Remember, the extraordinary wheat prices will hit right in their gut as margin (and margarine) compression will hurt their costs.

Wednesday April 30

All eyes will be on the Fed decision this day. Greg Ip, from The Wall Street Journal, regularly writes about the Fed outlook as well as many of the factors that go into the Fed's decision. On this subject I invited him to be a guest this week on The Disciplined Investor Podcast. This episode will be available Monday.

In other earnings, investors are looking towards the darling, now scorned, Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) for direction on its future earnings path. Estimates for an increase of $.11 over same quarter last year will need to be met for investors to once again look kindly on this name. Shares have been beaten down with ferocity since January and stand at about 1/3 their value since the November 2007 high.

Thursday, May 1

Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) will report and give us a good look at the employment situation from a corporate standpoint. The ADP report will provide a look back, but there may be some tidbits within the conference call that may give us a look ahead. Estimates are for $.75 per share and $2.4 billion of revenue.

Exxon Mobile Corp. (NYSE: XOM) also reports today. The last few earnings releases have been whoppers. There is no reason to think that the total revenue number won't be gigantic. The street is looking for $124.43 billion for the period. Did someone say windfall tax?

Friday May 2

A lighter earnings day by far. Con Ed, Nortel, Viacom, take your pick. Nothing too exciting. Stay at home in your PJs.

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Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold positions of some of the stocks mentioned as of the publish date.

Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and author of the bestseller The Disciplined Investor: Essential Strategies for Success. See The Disciplined Investor Blog.

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Last updated: May 11, 2008: 10:57 PM

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