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Should you buy Take-Two based on the Grand Theft Auto IV buzz?

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So Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is about to have one heck of a week. Tell me if I'm wrong, but I'm willing to bet everyone reading this knows that today is launch day for Grand Theft Auto IV on the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 consoles. And I'm sure there were many hardcore fans at Best Buy (NASDAQ: BBY) and GameStop (NYSE: GME) today, ready with cold-hard-cash in their hands to snag the software; in fact, this article talks about how some stores were open at midnight to satisfy the pent-up demand (remember, this title was delayed). And Douglas McIntyre discussed the game earlier today as being a potential barometer in terms of consumer confidence.

With all this incredible buzz, with the projection that GTA IV might move close to 10 million discs this year, should you be interested in taking on some Take-Two stock for your investment portfolio? The answer for me is no, Take-Two is not a buy here. Remember that we still have the whole arbitrage game going on with it since Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) wants to buy the publisher; also recall that Take-Two is gunning for a higher offer and purposely delayed further negotiations until after the release of GTA IV. I sold my position when the whole buyout offer was made a while ago, and I'm still glad that I did -- for me, the trade was over at that point, and I was happy to simply own my Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares.

There will be some who will point out that Take-Two could be a buy right now because GTA IV will beat expectations, but here's the biggest signal to me that Take-Two may not be -- as of this writing, the stock price is basically flat today. Sometimes you have to look at what the market is telling you, even if the market may turn out to be wrong. That sounds contradictory in some ways, but I'm basically saying the following: GTA IV is here, the news is out, everything is probably priced in at the moment, and at the very least, arbitrage is too speculative to touch for average investors. So, I'm ignoring the buzz today, and not giving in to temptation to start a new Take-Two position.

Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: July 11, 2009: 11:26 AM

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