Are you prepared for Wrath of the Lich King? WoW Insider has you covered!

AOL Money & Finance

Under Armour (UA) drops 2008 revenue forecast

UA logoUnder Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) shares are falling after the company reported a first-quarter profit of $2.9 million, or 6 cents per share, beating analyst forecasts of 3 cents per share. However, the company also lowered its 2008 profit forecast to between $103.5 million to $104.5 million, from a previous estimate of $108.5 million to $110.5 million, which is giving investors reasons to worry. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on UA.

After hitting a one-year high of $73.40 in August, the stock hit a one-year low of $25.32 in January. This morning, UA opened at $34.54. So far today the stock has hit a low of $33.80 and a high of $36.87. As of 11:55, UA is trading at $34.89, down $3.69 (-9.6%). The chart for UA looks neutral and deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $45 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in seven weeks as long as UA is below $45 at June expiration. Under Armour would have to rise by more than 29% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

UA hasn't been above $45 by more than a few cents since December and has shown resistance around $37 recently. This trade could be risky if the overall economy turns around soon, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance UA might find around $45, where the stock topped out in January and February.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in UA.

Related Posts

Add your comments

Please keep your comments relevant to this blog entry. Email addresses are never displayed, but they are required to confirm your comments.

When you enter your name and email address, you'll be sent a link to confirm your comment, and a password. To leave another comment, just use that password.

To create a live link, simply type the URL (including http://) or email address and we will make it a live link for you. You can put up to 3 URLs in your comments. Line breaks and paragraphs are automatically converted — no need to use <p> or <br> tags.

New Users

Current Users

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+29.8811,632.38
NASDAQ+21.922,325.88
S&P 500+5.191,282.19

Last updated: July 24, 2008: 06:59 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

BloggingStocks Featured Video

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

    AOL Business News

    Latest from BloggingBuyouts

    Sponsored Links

    My Portfolios

    Track your stocks here!

    Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.