U.S. gross domestic product did not turn negative in Q1 2008, according data released by the Commerce Department Wednesday, but economists are quick to point out, that's not only nothing to write home about, the recent mild data is cause enough for concern. U.S. GDP registered a minuscule annualized rate of 0.6% in Q1 2008, above the 0.3% consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, but nevertheless, well below what economists believe is adequate for national economic health.
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Wednesday that, technically, because GDP is still positive, the U.S. economy is not in a recession. However, as a practical matter, Wang said the economy is in a "growth recession." Further, Wang said to not be alarmed if you can't tell the difference.
"A growth recession is when the economy grows so slowly, profit grows slowly or declines, manufacturing activity grows slowly or declines, job creation stops, unemployment rises, retail sales growth slows or tails off, home foreclosures rise, and other measures also slump," Wang said. "So even though the economy may still be expanding, few indicators are at satisfactory levels. So a growth recession is mostly the latter."
U.S. economic barometers: profits and jobs
Economist Glen Langan agreed with Wang, and added that two shorthand metrics investors / traders can use to gauge whether U.S. economic growth is satisfactory are profits and jobs.
"We have a number of ways of evaluating the health of the economy, and GDP is perhaps the most telling, but one way to evaluate the quality or adequacy of that growth is earnings. If profits are growing, we know that the products and services of American companies are on the mark, in demand, and firms are doing what they must do to keep investors happy," Langan said. "The second is job creation. The U.S. economy must create about 100,000-125,000 jobs per month just to keep unemployment from rising. If we see that kind of job creation, we know the U.S. economy is doing what it must to accommodate new eligible workers and keep the public happy."
How does the current economy stack up regarding the profits and jobs metrics? As one might deduce, the economy, even though it's technically still growing, is falling far short regarding profits and jobs. Profits are growing very slowly or are stagnant, with some sectors registering year-over-year profit declines and losses. Further, job growth has stalled, with the U.S. having shed jobs for three consecutive months, including 80,000 in March 2008.
Further, Wang underscored that there's "almost no way" the economy can grow at its current rate "and still generate satisfactory earnings growth and job growth."
Hence, as a practical matter, the distinction between 'growth recession' and 'recession' is irrelevant, he said.
"A growth recession fails to satisfy several key metrics," Wang said. "Just like an official 'recession,' it means policymakers have much work ahead of them to get the economy moving again."











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-30-2008 @ 5:11PM
drmichaelschneider said...
Warren Buffett this week said he thinks the US is in a recession and he also said the economy would have to grow at a 1% rate just to stay even given population growth. That seems like a more reasonable definition of recession than the one that looks for just 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Technically though, until we accept a new view of recession we aren't in one-- given the old definition. We are in a slowdown and might still avoid a recession as the stimulus package, lower rates and tax refunds come in. Nevertheless, housing isn't likely to help the economy to move forward so those expecting a quick recovery and those worried about big interest rate jumps this year may find their expectations a bit off the mark- as Warren Buffett also indicates. (Warren Buffett's latest comments on recession and on the economy are available free in the Billionaire Watch section- yellow label, top- at http://www.Barrelomoney.com).