Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares are trading higher today as rumors swirled that partner AT&T (NYSE: T) will offer Apple's 3G, or next generation, iPhone for only $200, much cheaper than the retail cost of these phones. This discount would go straight onto Apple's bottom-line from the pockets of AT&T, who is hoping that these cheaper prices will lure more subscribers to their network. AAPL is also getting support from a Commerce Department report that GDP grew by 0.6 percent in the first quarter, ahead of the 0.5 percent growth expected by economists. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AAPL.
After hitting a one-year low of $98.55 in May, the stock hit a one-year high of $202.96 in December. AAPL opened this morning at $176.19. So far today the stock has hit a low of $175.80 and a high of $180.00. As of 12:40, AAPL is trading at $177.45 up $2.40 (1.4%). The chart for AAPL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $140 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.3% return in just seven weeks as long as AAPL is above $140 at June expiration. Apple would have to fall by more than 21% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
AAPL hasn't been below $140 since March and has shown support around $170 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy looks like it is weakening again, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 200-day moving average, which is around $150 and rising.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent controls bullish hedged positions in both T and AAPL.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-30-2008 @ 3:34PM
RICH BRULATO said...
Sounds like ATT is trying to lure more cutomers to their network by taking profits away from the harware profits of APPLE...we'll see if Jobs stands for it or opens up iPhone sales to other cell companies...
4-30-2008 @ 3:44PM
millsap said...
Bit misleading to say "AT&T announced..." when they did no such thing, isn't it? Granted, you cited the source (Moritz), but he didn't even claim that it was coming straight from AT&T. (Moritz only said the price reduction/subsidization would happen "according to a person familiar with the strategy".) I've got no real problem with bloggers reiterating rumors, but it should be noted that they are just that - rumors.
4-30-2008 @ 4:47PM
Beltway Greg said...
Better strategy, simply go long Apple and go to the beach. If you buy 1000 shares your net worth will have increased by at least $25K by Oct. 1.
Beltway Greg