SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) shares trading lower today after the company posted a first-quarter profit of 242 million euros ($376.82 million), below analysts' estimates of 296 million euros ($460.9 million). The weaker US dollar has been holding SAP back. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on SAP.
After hitting a one-year high of $59.86 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $43.00 in January. This morning, SAP opened at $49.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $43.00 and a high of $59.86. As of 12:10, SAP is trading at $51.02, down $1.43 (-2.7%). The chart for SAP looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $55 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in seven weeks as long as SAP is below $55 at June expiration. SAP would have to rise by more than 7% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
SAP hasn't been above $55 since October and has shown resistance around $53.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the stock continues on its slow upward trend it has had for the past few months, but with today's news, that seems unlikely.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SAP.
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Not much time left for downside 
Foreclosures fall, but are still higher than a year ago
HP's deal for 3Com: A missile launch at Cisco?
