There is a well known investment strategy that says that investors should by stocks at Halloween and sell them at the end of April. Statistically, most market gains have occurred during that six month period, so the theory says to buy stocks then and when May comes, you should sell.
This time around, the 'buy at Halloween' plan would have been a bad move. With markets reaching their highs at the end of October, investors would have ended up buying the market high only to watch the market collapse. Now that we have finally had a good month, loyalists to the theory would have you sell.
I got a call from a client who asked what I thought about implementing the strategy on his account. I actually think that the market may be setting up for a nice spring and summer rally. It appears that the market has the potential to keep moving higher. While the economy slowed down, it didn't enter a recession, and corporate earnings have generally beaten estimates. Coupled with the economic stimulus checks that are supposed to be arriving in our mailboxes any day, this looks like the year that the 'sell in May and go away' strategy isn't going to be successful.
How about 'buy in May and watch your portfolio go up up and away!'?
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/30/08
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-30-2008 @ 1:14PM
Richard said...
I had planned on this sell by May schedule too and buy some blue chip stocks, with global market, for this summer but go away before fall:-))
4-30-2008 @ 1:21PM
David Huston said...
In my view, in May, stay away.
4-30-2008 @ 2:35PM
Warren said...
Buy and hold, every month. The strategy never changes if you're in it for the long term.