Centex rises despite huge EPS miss

Centex Corp. (NYSE: CTX) shares opened lower today, but have risen throughout the day, even after the company posted a fourth-quarter loss of $911 million, or $7.34 per share, well below analyst estimates of a $2.43 per-share loss. Revenue tumbled 37% for the quarter to $2.31 billion, as CTX cut its average selling price 15% to help build up sales. Investors must believe that the worst is over for CTX. If you think this stock won't be falling too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged play on CTX.

After hitting a one-year high of $49.85 last May, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.77 in November. This morning, CTX opened at $20.02. So far today the stock has hit a low of $19.79 and a high of $22.25. As of 12:15, CTX is trading at $21.92, down 1.10 (-5.3%). The chart for CTX looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in two months as long as CTX is above $17.50 at June expiration. Centex would have to fall by more than 20% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.