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Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back

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Grains & OilseedsThis month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.

April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained some ground in April as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was up with stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) improving significantly on very strong reports. Google is up over 25%.

Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.

Even though it has been a tough year for most of my stock picks I have not changed perspective and my original rationale for my eight picks remains, with the exception of Valero based on its outlook. I do not change my mind based on price but on facts, and that is why though others are down it is only VLO that I am re-examining. See Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 for the original story.

In January, I added Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) and Huaneng Power (NYSE:HNP) to our holdings. I made no additions in February or March among these stocks. In April as HNP hit new lows we acquired more stock. This is a long term position and we are prepared to ride the 5.6% yield as long as it is there for the taking.

Through April the average return for my eight picks was a loss of -8.96%; a welcome improvement from last months sad -15.96% showing. This under-performed the average return of the indices: -6.71%. This years stalking horse, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), sagged a little more during the month, still besting both my average and overall indices average. However, the DJIA is slightly ahead of 'my pal Warren' so far this year -- oooh!

Including dividends for my picks, they averaged 3.91% yield though the first quarter. However that must be adjusted because of NCT's reduced dividend, so I have adjusted to 2.99% going forward. Therefore I will be an adding .978% for the first 3 months and .249% (2.99% / 12) for each additional month. Through April the loss was -8.96 + .978 + . 249 = -7.73%. Using 1.8% for the average dividend of the indices divided by 3 adds 0.6%, and reduces the loss to -5.57%. I'm still the loser so far while the gap did close some. BRK.B does not pay a dividend.

I continue to hope that 2008 does not end up being about who loses the least. The following are my eight picks with the starting share price as of December 28, 2007:

The Indices:

This year's "stalking horse" Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) (I am tracking the 'B' shares, not the more expensive 'A' shares) saw its B shares down from $4,685 to $4,457 for a loss of -4.87%. This is the second month Berkshire has had a loss which increased by a small fraction while most everything else improved.

This year, so far, it looks like the big cap DJIA was the place to be.

Yesterday our Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced another cut in the discount rate of a quarter point to 2% and changed posture to signal it would probably be the last cut.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of AAUK, BRK.B, HNP, NCT, and VLO.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-223.328,280.74
NASDAQ-49.201,796.52
S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 04, 2009: 02:49 PM

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