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March real U.S. consumer spending rises 0.1%, as inflation erodes income gains


Consumer spending increased 0.4%, but rose just a scant 0.1% after adjusting for inflation, in March 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday, as higher prices eroded income gains for Americans.

Further, it was the fourth straight month of sub-par real consumer demand.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected March 2008 consumer spending to increase 0.3%.

Meanwhile, inflation accelerated in March 2008, with consumer prices increasing 0.3%. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, also increased just 0.2%. For the past 12 months, consumer prices have increased 3.2%, while the core rate has increased 2.1%, or just above the U.S. Federal Reserve's inflation ceiling, commonly referred to as the Fed's 'comfort zone.'



In addition, real personal income, after adjusting for inflation, was unchanged in March 2008, and has risen just 0.9% in the past year.

Economic Analysis: A negative data point regarding consumer spending. The essentially flat, 0.1% increase in real consumer spending - - the fourth straight month containing a sub-par performance - - is indicative of both a slowdown in consumer demand and the larger bite of inflation, which erodes purchasing power. The March 2008 consumer spending data suggests continued economic sluggishness is ahead for at least the next three months. One modest bright point: core inflation, running at 2.1%, remains only slightly above what the U.S. Federal Reserve considers to be excessive. If core inflation doesn't increase, moving forward, that should provide additional leeway for the Fed to further lower short-term interests, should it choose to do so. However, if core inflation rises to 2.5%, the Fed clearly would consider that a sign of elevated inflation, necessitating a tightening of monetary policy.

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Last updated: July 04, 2008: 07:07 PM

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