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The week in preview: Optimism reigns, but will earnings news prolong the fiesta?

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We are investing in optimistic times. News -- good or bad -- seems to magically morph into an opportunity to move markets higher. In the past week, even more than usual, weak economic news was accompanied by commentary along the lines of, "it could have been worse," and other euphoric sentiments.

It is difficult to determine whether this is another short-covering bear market bounce or a real rally. But next week will bring us new information that will start to indicate where the answer lies. For now, investors are looking at the glass as half-full. Cash on the sidelines is moving in to equities, partly because there are very few other alternatives. Yields are low, commodities are risky and real estate is taboo.

Next week begins with the celebration of Cinco de Mayo, yet the markets were way ahead -- it has shifted into party mode on its own during the past few weeks. Here is a summary of key events to watch during the week ahead:

Monday, May 5

First off, the market gets a chance to react to news of Microsoft withdrawing its bid for Yahoo. It will be interesting to see how far Yahoo's stock price sinks as well as what all the market watchers think Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will do next.

Hewitt Associates (NYSE: HEW) the HR firm that has been showing amazing strength is set to report. First Call is looking for quarterly earnings of $.38 as compared to a year ago of $.23. There may be opportunity for this firm as we go into harder economic times where companies are looking for an easy solution to labor concerns.

Also reporting is Nam Tai Electronics (NYSE: NTE). It could have a good quarter since the need for computer parts is on the rise. Intel and Apple did well to show that international demand is still hot for electronics and this is one of the parts manufacturers. Through its electronics manufacturing services operations, Nam Tai makes electronic components and sub-assemblies, including liquid crystal display (LCD) panels, LCD modules, flexible printed circuit sub-assemblies and image sensors modules and printed circuit board assembly for Bluetooth headsets. First Call estimates are for $.19 as compared to year ago of $.19 per share on $163 million of revenue.

Chicken anyone? The recent rise in food prices and the concern over demand will show up in the earnings for Pilgrims Pride (NYSE: PPC). We have seen a few competitors report recently and the numbers have been coming in solid. Earnings are expected to be a loss of 81 cents. The earnings loss is expected to be double that of the year ago period.

If you think that the markets are full of hot air, maybe you should look at Airgas (NYSE: ARG) as a potential opportunity. Technically the chart looks similar to almost every other stock in the U.S. It is showing a double bottom with a share price now approaching its breakout point. Keeping above its 200 day moving average and making higher lows, makes for a nice chart. Watch for the earnings announcement, which is expected to show a nice move to $.73 for the recent quarter on $1.6 $1.06* billion of revenue. (*CORRECTED REVENUE)

After the close, Career Education (NASDAQ: CECO) is going to show who is boss. In a slowing economy when workers are laid off... what do they do? Okay, some go home, collect unemployment and drink beer. But there are many who want to be re-trained and find better jobs when the economy gets back into gear. Given that trend, recently, ITT Educational Services (NYSE: ESI) blew out numbers and shares rocketed 30%. Could we see a similar move for CECO? Perhaps, although the ESI news already helped move the stock. But, once again, on a technical basis, the shares look like they are poised to explode if the quarterly earnings come in at or above the expected 21 cents.

Have you ever noticed that the parking lot at the local fitness club is packed in January? After the taco parties, salsa eating and cervesa drinking from today's festivities, there may be a few amigos who want to shed some of those unsightly pounds. Next stop: Weight Watchers (NYSE: WTW)! Technically the shares are in a mid-term downtrend, yet have been somewhat stable since last quarter's well received earnings release. The street is looking for 74 cents on $442 million of revenue. Let's see how they trimmed the fat to bring up margins before taking too big of a bite with this one.

Tuesday May 6

The partying never stops! Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN), the amusement park group, will be reporting and looking at the potential for a quarterly loss of $1.05 per share. This is compared to the year ago report at $1.02. Shares have been on a roller-coaster ride lately.

Now for the big one: Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM). With credit markets seeing a great deal of uncertainly, FNM has been one of the stocks in focus. From the depths of despair, the shares have risen over the past few weeks. No doubt, there are problems. The real question is has the worst passed? Investors are betting they have and the earnings will tell them if they are correct. First Call estimates a loss of 81 cents as compared to a gain of 85 cents last year, same quarter. (See additional FNM/FRE Commentary)

Lots of lipstick on the economic pig may benefit Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL). The company is reporting this day and expectations are for a quarterly gain of 47 cents on $1.879 billion of revenue.

If Tecate was not the choice for Monday's Mexican celebration, then maybe a frosty Molson (NYSE:TAP)? I have my money on beer during economic downturns. Agree? Maybe this is why quarterly earnings estimates are expected at 29 cents, up from 14 cents a year ago. CHUG...CHUG...CHUG!

Bellwether Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) is reporting after the close. Technology has been on fire and, if the dollar's weakness has had anything to do with that, network gear company Cisco should benefit. Look for 36 cents on $9.75 billion of revenue.

Rounding out the fun for this day, Disney (NYSE: DIS) will tell us how it has been affected by the global slowdown. If there is any truth to the notion that consumers are spending less, then there could be problems for Disney. Expectations are for quarterly earnings at50 cents per share.

Wednesday, May 7

Earnings for Playboy (NYSE: PLA) are scheduled for after the close on Tuesday, but it will be much more fun to be a part for the action during the conference call. Aside from revealing its strategy and a behind-the-scenes look at earnings, investors will be looking to PLA to strip out all of the excess and cut margins so that they can continue to have a leg-up on the competition. Analysts are suggesting that 6 cents is the per share earnings for this quarter. I will be reading the earnings report closely. Usually there is something interesting to look at. Believe me, I read it for the comments, not the pictures.

Caffeine, I need caffeine. Not coffee, no, no , no - it makes me sweat. How about an energy drink instead? That is what Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS) is hoping you will say. Hansen has been capitalizing on the energy drink craze with its Rumba, Energade and Energy Formula beverage line. Earnings estimates are for a 60% increase over last year to 35 cents per share from revenues of $220 million.

Thursday, May 8

If you believe that the all of the giant casinos are built on the backs of losers, maybe the revitalization of the southern gambling zone, post Katrina will help out Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA). There is nothing positive to say about the chart or fundamentals these days except if you want to roll the dice, have at it. The shares are in a confirmed downturn and riding an overbought topside Bollinger band. Look for 31cents of earnings on the announcement.

Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) is going to announce earnings. This is an interesting biotech company as it has been embroiled in a fight to bring Provenge to market. This is a drug specifically geared toward prostate cancer and seems to work, or so they say. The FDA is being difficult. First Call is looking for revenues of $110,000 with a loss of 25 cents per share. (More insight on DNDN)

Maybe, just maybe, the partying this week gets out of hand. Then, it happens. You ask her that magical question and look to tie The Knot. Your next stop? TheKnot.com (NASDAQ: KNOT) -- your place for all-things wedding-related. This dot com has been around for a while and is still holding on strong. Investors divorced themselves of this one a while ago and shares are down a whopping 50% since the October 2007 high. Earnings are expected to be 5 cents per share on $25 million of revenue.

If that stops your heart, you may look towards the results of fast-moving Vital Signs (NASDAQ: VITL). The company is the designer, manufacturer, and marketer of airway management products for the anesthesia, respiratory/critical care, and interventional cardiology/radiology and sleep disorder markets. Fun stuff indeed! Revenues are expected to be $57 million with earnings of 69 cents for the quarter.

Friday, May 9

Fridays don't usually bring much excitement. A time to kick back with a cold beer (didn't we do that already this week?) and plan for the week to come. Look for Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) as a proxy for the advertising sector. Otherwise, take a peek at the trade balance numbers, including the trade deficit. There is no reason to believe that there will be any change of direction.

IPO/New Issue Market

Looking at the IPO calendar for the upcoming week, there are three major deals likely to price. The most important one to watch is Colfax Corporation which is being brought by Merrill Lynch. Quite literally a nuts and bolts company, Colfax makes pumps and fluid handling products. Without delving into the high quality customer base, let's just note the $500 million dollar revenue base and strong profitability margins. The stock (ticker to be CFX) is expected to price at $15 to $17, but don't be surprised if this range is higher due to strong demand for shares.

In addition, we have Western Gas Partners LP (WES) which is expected to price on May, 9th. Don't look for too much out of this name, as there will likely be plenty of stock to go around for those that want it. However, the dividend yield is likely to be high so it may prove to be a good long-term total return purchase. Finally, there is another solar company to join the litany of public solar companies already trading. Real Goods Solar, Inc. (RSOL) has a hokey name and that's about it. Not much in the way of profits, and with no brand-name underwriting, do not expect much in the way of initial returns. (For more info check out ZachStocks.)

Disclosure: Horowitz & Company may hold positions of securities mentioned as of the date of publish. Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and author of the The Disciplined Investor - Essential Strategies for Success. Data provided by Briefing.com and other sources believed to be reliable. Dates may change without notice.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 07:53 PM

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