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Marvel Entertainment (MVL) promises Iron Man 2 and lifts forecast

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MVL logoMarvel Entertainment Inc (NYSE: MVL) shares are trading higher after the company reported a first-quarter profit of $45.2 million, or 58 cents per share, beating analysts' estimates of 43 cents per share. The company raised its estimates for full year revenues and profit. Also lifting MVL is the success that the new Iron Man movie has seen over the past weekend and the company's promise to move forward with Iron Man 2. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MVL.

After hitting a one-year low of $21.21 in August, the stock has hit a new one-year high today. MVL opened this morning at $33.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $32.02 and a high of $33.24. As of 12:15, MVL is trading at $32.45, up $2.20 (7.3%). The chart for MVL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in just four and a half months as long as MVL is above $25 at September expiration. Marvel would have to fall by more than 23% before we would start to lose money.

MVL hasn't been below $25 by more than a dollar or so in the past six months and has shown support around $28 recently. This trade could be risky if Iron Man doesn't keep its box office momentum, but even if that happens, that position could be protected by support the stock might find from its 200-day moving average, which is currently around $26.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MVL.
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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 05:50 PM

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