Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ) shares opened in the red by more than 1% today, but have been regaining ground after laptop maker Compal Electronics Inc. lowered its shipment growth forecast for the second quarter to 10% from its previous estimate of 13-15%. Compal supplies laptops to HPQ, and said a shortage of batteries is responsible for the revised forecast. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on HPQ.

After hitting a one-year high of $53.48 in November, the stock hit a one-year low of $39.99 in January. This morning, HPQ opened at $48.24. So far today the stock has hit a low of $47.54 and a high of $53.48. As of 12:15, HPQ is trading at $48.15, down $0.12 (-0.25%). The chart for HPQ looks bullish and deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) Buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in nine trading days as long as HPQ is below $50 at May expiration. HP would have to rise by more than 9% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

HPQ hasn't been above $50 since early January and has shown resistance around $48.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 5/15) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance HPQ might find around $48, where it has topped out a few times over the past three months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in HPQ.