The new ParentDish: helping raise kids of all ages

AOL Money & Finance

Occidental Petroleum: Turn the oil shock to your advantage

The record run of oil, already up a gaudy 400% since 2000, continues, with prices breaking through $122 per barrel on Tuesday, May 6, 2008.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices, up about 20% in the past six months alone, and about 100% in the past four years, show few signs of moderating in the months ahead.

It's the era of high oil/energy prices, and until a readily-available, affordable energy substitute is found and/or oil prices decline, the oil / oil services sector will be in demand, which bodes well for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY).

Occidental has what analysts like: a geographically diverse reserve base, demonstrated production, substantial liquidity, and a 185% organic reserve replacement rate.

More positives: Occidental has done a pretty good job containing costs, with estimated, per barrel finding/development costs below the sector's average. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 earnings per share (EPS) consensus estimates for OXY are $8.12 to $7.81.

The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on OXY's long-term debt, and the company remains vulnerable to sustained slumps in oil/natural gas prices. But as long as oil remains above $70 per barrel -- which is likely -- Occidental looks like it will perform reasonably well in the immediate years ahead.

Finally, Occidental's modest p/e of 13 lowers the risk/return for the stock, unless you see oil heading under $70 per barrel. But don't hold your breath waiting for that to occur.

The First Call mean rating for OXY is: Buy [19 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $89.00 [high: $100, low: $62].

Stock Analysis:
Occidental Petroleum is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from OXY's shares. More-cautious investors may choose to wait until OXY pulls back to around $85-86, but keep in mind that OXY's shares may not retreat to that level. Sell/ Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $62.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

Related Posts

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Add your comments

Please keep your comments relevant to this blog entry. Email addresses are never displayed, but they are required to confirm your comments.

When you enter your name and email address, you'll be sent a link to confirm your comment, and a password. To leave another comment, just use that password.

To create a live link, simply type the URL (including http://) or email address and we will make it a live link for you. You can put up to 3 URLs in your comments. Line breaks and paragraphs are automatically converted — no need to use <p> or <br> tags.

New Users

Current Users

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-5.8612,986.80
NASDAQ-4.882,528.85
S&P 500+1.781,425.35

Last updated: May 17, 2008: 09:30 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

BloggingStocks Featured Video

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

AOL Business News

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

Sponsored Links

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

Weblogs, Inc. Network