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Occidental Petroleum: Turn the oil shock to your advantage

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The record run of oil, already up a gaudy 400% since 2000, continues, with prices breaking through $122 per barrel on Tuesday, May 6, 2008.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices, up about 20% in the past six months alone, and about 100% in the past four years, show few signs of moderating in the months ahead.

It's the era of high oil/energy prices, and until a readily-available, affordable energy substitute is found and/or oil prices decline, the oil / oil services sector will be in demand, which bodes well for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY).


Occidental has what analysts like: a geographically diverse reserve base, demonstrated production, substantial liquidity, and a 185% organic reserve replacement rate.

More positives: Occidental has done a pretty good job containing costs, with estimated, per barrel finding/development costs below the sector's average. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 earnings per share (EPS) consensus estimates for OXY are $8.12 to $7.81.

The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on OXY's long-term debt, and the company remains vulnerable to sustained slumps in oil/natural gas prices. But as long as oil remains above $70 per barrel -- which is likely -- Occidental looks like it will perform reasonably well in the immediate years ahead.

Finally, Occidental's modest p/e of 13 lowers the risk/return for the stock, unless you see oil heading under $70 per barrel. But don't hold your breath waiting for that to occur.

The First Call mean rating for OXY is: Buy [19 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $89.00 [high: $100, low: $62].

Stock Analysis:
Occidental Petroleum is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from OXY's shares. More-cautious investors may choose to wait until OXY pulls back to around $85-86, but keep in mind that OXY's shares may not retreat to that level. Sell/ Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $62.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

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Last updated: July 05, 2009: 09:10 PM

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