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Is Aldila's complaining about the golf market believable?

Last month I wrote about the resilience of golf in the face of a struggling market for many other consumer product companies. But when struggling golf shaft maker Aldila (NASDAQ: ALDA) announced an 18% decline in first quarter sales of its shafts, the company was quick to blame the economy.

"A weakening economy and decreased industry retail sales compared to last year impacted our sales," said Mr. Peter R. Mathewson, Chairman of the Board and CEO. "Market participants appear to be taking a cautious approach to 2008. While we are disappointed with our sales we did remain profitable and we believe we are well positioned for the back half of the year. Production for new programs in which we will participate should begin during the late third quarter and should be in full swing during the fourth quarter," Mr. Mathewson said.
But when Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) announced its first quarter results, it sounded a bullish note on its golf business: "And in golf, new advanced-technology products helped us achieve a first-quarter sales record with growth in every product category and in all key geographies. That included especially strong growth in Japan and Korea, two key markets where we're investing to expand our business."

Callaway (NYSE: ELY) reported "record net sales of $366.5 million, a 10% increase as compared to $334.6 million for the same period in 2007."

So here's the question: is Aldila's "it's the economy stupid!" explanation believable in light of the solid results reported by two of the largest club manufacturers? Or, is the company losing market-share to lower-cost producers and trying to shift the blame to factors outside of its control.

A closer look at Aldila's number gives some hint: while shaft sales were down 18%, unit sales were down just 5%. Most of the sales decline was driven by a 13% decline in the average selling price of the shafts. On the conference call, Matthewson conceded that market share was down from the company's peak.

But why didn't the press release mention the market share issue instead of dumping the whole thing on the economy?

Zac Bissonnette does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned here; however he is long shares of Adams Golf.

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Last updated: May 18, 2008: 10:55 AM

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