This weeks Barron's (subscription required) talks about The Next Warren Buffett. Of course nobody believes that's going to happen. The headline is cast to grab attention and sell papers, just like mine, but it's not happening: no way, no how!
The truth is that we have witnessed the one and only. Mr. Sokol may have all the qualities required to lead Berkshire going forward, but the best you can probably hope for from an investment perspective is that the company will beat the S&P 500 over a meaningful stretch of time. Even Buffett himself has said that he does not believe he could do much more than that, given the current size of the company which has a valuation of around $200 billion.
How many singers have been promoted as the next Elvis? I think there have been an equal number of Elvis sightings since his premature death. Chances of an actual Elvis sighting and someone being the next Elvis are probably statistically about the same. There will not be another Elvis.
This week Kobe Bryant, of the Los Angeles Lakers, received the NBA's Most Valuable Player award after 3 championships and 12 years in the league. Runner up Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets was probably equally deserving but will have to wait. Bryant was, and Paul is, being compared to Michael Jordan. There is no next Jordan, but Bryant and so far Paul, have made a name for themselves. That is what's important. David Sokol will have to make a name for himself.
Why do we choose to characterize up and comers in such unrealistic terms? Is it just promotional hype or is there more? Perhaps it is that we are hoping to relive great times as in the case of Elvis, or extend existing ones, as with 'my pal Warren'. It might be more that we are looking for a concise way to describe or inform the casual observer of something special. This is somewhat the case with headlines.
In any event, from everything described in the Barron's article, one is lead to believe that David Sokol will be Buffett's successor and he seems well prepared for the assignment.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of BRK.B.
