Disney (NYSE: DIS) reported earnings earlier in the week, and once again, Bob Iger pleased Wall Street with the media company's latest results (for a look at the numbers and an options-trading idea for Disney, see Brent Archer's recent piece about the Mouse). They more than beat expectations, but as a Disney shareholder, I'm somewhat blase about the whole affair. Sure, Iger is being feted as a CEO wunderkind who has successfully steered the S.S. Disney into prosperous financial seas after taking the wheel over from failed captain, Michael Eisner. But, you know, I've owned Disney for ten years now, and I just don't like the price action of the stock -- it hasn't gone anywhere since the last split back in 1998. And, I can't say that the stock performed spectacularly this week post the earnings win.
I think Iger needs to start worrying about the stock. Yeah, he'd probably tell me something like "I'm busy leveraging the Disney brand to differentiate its content from other media concerns to drive increases in returns on capital and earnings per share -- the stock will take care of itself." Ha! The stock has done nothing. Iger should pay attention to the sad long-term range that symbol DIS has been in for what seems like an eternity. Here's my suggestion -- double the dividend, Bob. You can do it.
A look at the company's most recent 10Q (for the quarter ended March 2008) shows an interesting cash-flow story. Okay, cash from operations for the last six months came in at $3.3 billion. Capital expenditures and acquisitions together equaled $759 million. Dividends were $664 million. Add $759 million and $664 million together and you get $1.4 billion. I think there's a lot of breathing room there, Bob. In fact, if you brought dividends up to an even $2 billion, you still would have covered cap-ex and acquisition costs. And remember, Disney pays an annual dividend, so that $664 million was for the whole year! Imagine if you spread $2 billion out over four quarters. You could easily double it, Bob. In fact, a check of the most recent 10K shows that cash flow has been excellent the last few years. Disney, by my calculations, could have supported a much higher dividend back in 2005!
I'm assuming you are confident in the future cash flows of the company, right, Bob? Of course you are. So am I. But, why then, won't you allow the stock to have a larger yield? Oh, and here's something else -- that issue about Disney paying an annual dividend? Don't you think you should pay a quarterly dividend? Please don't try to make any arguments about the simplicity of paying once every calendar cycle and that Disney has so many odd-lot shareholders that it's just too expensive to do the dividend quarterly. Come on.
Instead of concentrating on creating a new movie label for nature films -- that idea is an overrated one, in my opinion -- and instead of taking back those retail stores -- why you want to invest any effort in them is beyond me -- you should pay your shareholders to wait until the institutions finally recognize the value of the Disney brand and the intrinsic synergy potentials of the corporate structure itself and start pushing the stock higher.
CBS (NYSE: CBS) yields over 4%. World Wrestling Entertainment (NYSE : WWE) yields over 5% -- and, heck, that company's cash flow isn't as good as yours, Bob. The McMahon's certainly have confidence in their future. So should you. And you should prove it by doubling the dividend and returning to a quarterly schedule. This once-a-year thing doesn't cut it anymore. And think about this -- you could take the current 1% yield and turn it into 2%, a number that would beat Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) yield. If you want, you could slow your buyback. Whatever. The point is, you need to look at the dividend issue.
I've written about Disney's deplorable dividend policies before, and I can safely assume that I'll be writing about them again. Pity. Here's hoping that Mr. Iger and the board finally realize that shareholders need some incentive to hold the stock.
Disclosure: I own shares in Disney; positions can change at any time.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-29-2008 @ 9:36PM
Fred Cohen said...
Bob remenber the old times.
Oceanside High School