Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) announced disappointing earnings. But the stock went up. Is that a signal investors think the worst is over, that the future looks brighter for financial stocks? Maybe.
While Fannie Mae is only one company, it's the biggest in the mortgage business. That means everyone is watching what it's doing and how it's faring. As Fannie Mae goes, so goes the mortgage market. As of the latest earnings release, things aren't going too well. Earnings per share showed a loss of $2.57, much worse than the 81 cents analysts predicted. Management cut the quarterly dividend to 25 cents a share starting in the third quarter to save money. To bolster its capital, Fannie will raise $6 billion, most likely in preferred stock since there's a strong market for income shares.
The company wasn't too optimistic. It sees severe weakness in the housing market to continue this year with increasing delinquencies, defaults and foreclosures on mortgage loans. Notice the use of the word increasing. CEO Daniel Mudd said he didn't think a real recovery in the U.S. housing market would happen before 2010. In the most recent quarter Fannie Mae's mortgage credit book of business went up by 3% to $3 trillion.
So where does that leave investors, especially ones considering the financials? With a little bit of hope. That's because all the new capital being raised strengthens the balance sheets of the banks and lenders who were able or are going to issue new securities. With new capital, more loans can be made, ones that are more sane, more likely to be paid back.
One other note: all of the banks and thrifts have been booking loan loss reserves. Those reserves are a hit to earnings in the quarter in which they are taken. Then those reserves can be used in the future against losses. That way new losses will be taken against those reserves, not affecting earnings. In other words, there's money in the bank to use against future losses. If the reserves are adequate, future earnings for many lenders will be very strong when compared to the losses being taken now.
Does that all add up to a better time to invest in financials? It might. Some of the home builders are beginning to see fewer cancellations of new home contracts. Some lenders are showing decreases in the size of their losses. The worst does seem to be behind lenders, as far as mortgages are concerned.
But that isn't the only area of lending. There's also credit cards and home equity loans. Those are beginning to show delinquencies and some defaults. While not as large as the mortgage market, these loans could be another blow to earnings, especially if unemployment becomes a real problem. Be aware of more losses for banks coming from different parts of their portfolios. If those begin to snowball, the worst may still be ahead.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-11-2008 @ 12:28PM
Petkov said...
Why nobody ever mentions that both Fanny May and Freddy Mac are government backed? Oh but communism doesn't work, right? ONLY "free market" economy works, right? It's very telling how the US government backs certain companies while it lets other do or die. yet's the myth persists that USA is "capitalist" and "free market" economy.
5-11-2008 @ 12:28PM
Mike said...
Lots more negative news to come from the subprime and credit markets. Major excesses have to be worked through the banks and other financial companies.
Citigroup gave a strong hint when it said it wants to get rid of $500 billion (that is BILLION, not million) of various debt instruments!
Hold on...there is more to come..
5-11-2008 @ 12:59PM
Harry said...
Some business people love to talk about "free Market" until they get in trouble then they run to the government to save them.
What bullshit...
5-11-2008 @ 3:05PM
Tom said...
More quarters of ahead of problems in bank stocks. No way are problems behind us...
5-11-2008 @ 3:48PM
RICH BRULATO said...
We are only half way through this housing/mortgage crisis..I think criminal prosecution is the only answer for the companies that gave loans to unqualified applicants.
5-19-2008 @ 2:59PM
ATHELSTAN said...
Now I'm more determined to dollar cost average into closed end fund, First Financial (FF) ,than ever before. The worse the picture gets, the more exciting fiancial stocks become.