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Chasing Value: Cool trade -- Alum.Co. of China for General Dynamics

Aluminum Pipes & TubesLast year, my best Chasing Value recommendation was Aluminum Corp of China ADS (NYSE: ACH), which sailed from $22 per share to a 52-week high of $90.95. I will take credit for finding a winner, but I cannot in all honesty say that I thought it would more than quadruple -- that part was luck. (The original story was Chasing Value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS, which I still think is worth a read today.)

If you acquired what is often referred to as Chalco (China Alum. Co.) anywhere near the time I recommended it and still own it you are probably still very content with only perhaps a 90% gain as the stock has come down some, closing last Friday May 9 at $40.98

Another of my recommendations was General Dynamics Corp (NYSE: GD), which closed Friday at $90.92. This one is only up a few percentage points from my starting point of $88 per share, but you will note, curiously, that it is only 3 cents off ACH's high. Given the market's bad year, a gain when the market is losing is a bigger plus than the casual observer would perceive. The defense sector has provided the anticipated market defense as I discussed.

The reason I bring these two stocks to your attention is because I did something I do not often do -- I traded a long-term position. Most readers of my articles know I am a buy-and-hold guy, not a stock trader. However, when ACH hit $88 per share at the same time I was reviewing defense sector stocks, and GD was trading for the same price, I decided that was an unusual event: One pick being at an all-time-high, while the other looked to be a value and a good defensive position for uncertain times.

We sold one-third of our long-term ACH position, capturing all of the original investment and a healthy profit, and bought some General Dynamics for the same price with the "house money" protecting us against giving it all back. This worked out perfectly, and now we have two strong companies going forward and collecting dividends. I think both of these stocks belong on your watch list.

Even us old curmugeons can learn from our mistakes. I did not want to give it all back like I did in 2001.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of ACH and GD.

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 05:37 PM

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