MBIA investors, ratings agencies shrug off $2.4 billion loss

Posted May 13th 2008 11:22AM by Zac Bissonnette
Filed under: Bad News, MBIA Inc (MBI)

MBIA (NYSE: MBI) reported a larger than expected loss of $2.4 billion, reflecting an unrealized loss of $3.6 billion on its insured credit derivatives. And the stock went up.

Why? Portfolio.com summed it up this way: "Optimistic comments eclipse dreadful numbers in the bond insurer's release."

Well, isn't that just jolly. The problem is that MBIA has been making optimistic comments all along, trashing short seller William Ackman for bashing the company, while many of Ackman's predictions have turned out to be brilliantly prescient.

Back in February of 2005, MBIA said that it was "very optimistic." The stock has since declined from over $50 to under $10 as the company has reported big losses, come under the scrutiny of rating agencies, etc.

MBIA may very well be on the road to a remarkable turnaround -- I doubt it, but who knows? In the meantime, investors would do well, as always, to believe the numbers rather than the optimistic projections.

Tags: ABK, Ambac, inthenews, MBI, MBIA