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Sentiment toward dollar turning bullish, survey reveals

Macroeconomic factors are beginning to hint about a change in the dollar's fortunes, pun intended, if a new survey is any indicator.

Still, that doesn't mean that the United States does not have work ahead to right its economic ship of state, so says one economist.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index's dollar expectations component rose to 57.6 in May 2008 from 42.87 in April 2008, and 30.3 in March 2008. A reading above 50 indicates respondents expect the currency to appreciate in the next six months. The poll surveyed 3,447 Bloomberg terminal users.

In late Wednesday afternoon trading, the dollar rose slightly against the world's other major currencies, rising about a fifth-cent to $1.5446 against the euro, and a quarter-cent to $1.9435 against the British pound. The dollar also rose about one-half yen to 105.35 against Japan's yen. The dollar hit an all-time low versus the euro of $1.6018 on April 21, 2008. The euro has appreciated about 100% versus the dollar since 2000.

Dollar set to rise further?

Economist Peter Dawson, who did not participate in the Bloomberg News survey, told BloggingStocks Wednesday he's not surprised that poll respondents are turning dollar bullish, given that macroeconomic factors appear to be turning in the dollar's favor.

"If the Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve] is done lowering interest rates, and if U.S. consumers are cutting back purchases of imported goods, and if the U.S. economy has bottomed, that would suggest the dollar is set to rise," Dawson said. "But notice I had a lot of 'ifs' in there. This is by no means a certainty. If the [U.S.] economy falls into a deeper recession, the dollar could continue to fall."

With the above in mind, Dawson also sought to place the new, dollar-positive sentiment in the proper context: There's a great deal of economic work to be done, he said. "The U.S. still has large federal budget and trade deficits, oil and food costs pressures adding to inflation and a bad housing slump," Dawson said. "When those problems have been addressed, then we can expect a long-term rise in the dollar."

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Last updated: July 04, 2008: 06:46 PM

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