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Thai Capital (TF): Global growth at a discount

"Thailand had a political crisis in 2006, when the democratically elected government was overthrown by a military coup," recalls international investing expert Mike Burnick.

"But the country is emerging from its crisis with a fresh pro-growth mandate," he notes in his Global Market Investor. Here, he looks at a closed-end fund for those seeking to play this trend.

"Thailand experienced a sharp stock market crash and 18 months of political chaos. But now, the crisis appears to have passed. In March, the Thai military stepped aside, and a newly elected government was installed in Bangkok, which looks a lot like Thailand's old government under Thaksin!

"In fact, the newly elected government chose a cabinet that is packed with allies of the former prime minister. Bangkok is also busy pursuing the same pro-growth agenda with an emphasis on tax cuts and government infrastructure spending. . . . And the plan is working.

"Export growth surged 24% in the last quarter of 2007 leading Thailand to its fastest economic growth in more than two years. Corporate tax rates were slashed, job growth is picking up, and business investment is growing again. All of these are bullish signals that the Thai economy is shifting into higher growth-mode again.

"Finally, stocks in Thailand are among the cheapest in emerging markets right now. In fact, stocks in the benchmark Thai SET Index trade at an average of just 11-times earnings, yet Thailand's corporate profits are expected to grow 24% this year.

"Global investors are beginning to catch on to this story. Money from foreign investors is already flowing back into Thailand's stock market. So far this year, foreign buyers have been net-purchasers of about US$3 billion worth of Thai stocks at current exchange rates.

"Thai stocks are a bargain and now you've got the catalyst of renewed institutional buying. This tells me that there's a lot more upside potential from here. What's the best way to invest? For my money, I like the closed-end Thai Capital Fund (ASE: TF).

"The fund holds a diversified list of more than 25 leading Thai companies. The biggest sector weighting is in red-hot energy stocks. Banks and property developers also make a big portion of the fund's holdings. Both of these sectors are expanding at a fast clip thanks to low interest rates in Thailand.

"But put all these stats aside for a moment and consider this: Thai Capital Fund is currently trading at a mega-discount of about 13% to the fund's net-asset value (NAV)! That's huge.

"And get this . . . just a few years ago, before politics got in the way and when Thailand's stock market was booming, this fund traded at a 12% premium top NAV. This means that as soon as Thailand swings back into investor favor again, you have the distinct possibility of realizing big gains just from this valuation swing alone.

"In fact, as recently as one-year ago this fund traded at a 12% premium. If the fund only trades back to that level -- you stand to earn 25% on your money -- even if the SET Index goes nowhere.

"That's a rare margin of safety to find in any fund, let alone a fast-growing emerging market like Thailand. Bottom line: I recommend you scoop up shares of the Thai Capital Fund right away, before this rich discount disappears."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 06:51 AM

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