TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the value guys threw this party, so respect the hosts. Sometimes you just feel beaten into being positive. You just say, "OK, enough, I will accept the positives as they are being put out, not as I believe they are."
That's how I felt yesterday about Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). The company put out financials yesterday that looked better than expected, and for once I didn't question whether they were.
I didn't because the earnings from so many of the feckless players -- the Fannies (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take), the Washington Mutuals (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) the MBIAs (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take) and the Ambacs (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take) -- are all being greeted with a bizarre positive response, so bizarre that I bought into the "better than expected" rhetoric because I don't want to fight the value guys who are in control right now.
Elsewhere on the site, Doug Kass has been putting up some very strong arguments that numbers from the likes of Freddie are less than meets the eye.
You know what? He's probably right. But when you get to the point where the big money has decided that there are just enough positives to make them come in and there aren't enough negatives to keep them out, you just have to join them -- you can't beat them.
I feel this way because in 1990, when I was inflexible and wanted to tell the bulls, "No, no, no, it is not over, there's much more downside," I started losing lots of money. I saw quarters like FRE's and decided to "see through" them and stay short.
After a few of them, I just said, "OK, I have made a lot of money shorting this group, I am now not only betting against the Fed, but I am betting against every value guy in the store."
I covered, and in some cases I went long.
I made a lot of money.
It wasn't "rigorous" to do. But it was right. And that's how we get paid.
Random musings: CBS (NYSE: CBS) (Cramer's Take) to buy CNet (NASDAQ: CNET) (Cramer's Take)? Les Moonves likes it as profitable and growing, but I always think of it as barely profitable or loss making and not growing. To each his own.
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-11-2008 @ 11:09AM
ocracokelight said...
I have been in the Real Estate Industry for 43 years. We experienced the same crisis in the 80 s with the Savings & Loan bail out. LET THEM DROWN IN THEIR BAD LOANS
The whole mess starts at the very bottom,
Real EState Agents and Loan Officers falsifying sale and credit data and lowering credit standards. Interest only loans, buy downs. No-one has money in the bank it is all on credit. National Building contractors over inflating house prices to cover their give-aways. High ratio Construction loans on projects with 6 month standing inventory. Last but not least , Appraisers who over-appraise properties in order to do business with these crooked loan brokers
All of these factors created a false economy then
the bubble bursts and you have a multi billion $ fall. YOU JUST CAN'T FIX STUPIDITY
out.
7-11-2008 @ 11:12AM
ocracokelight said...
I have been in the Real Estate Industry for 43 years. We experienced the same crisis in the 80 s with the Savings & Loan bail out. LET THEM DROWN IN THEIR BAD LOANS
The whole mess starts at the very bottom,
Real EState Agents and Loan Officers falsifying sale and credit data and lowering credit standards. Interest only loans, buy downs. No-one has money in the bank it is all on credit. National Building contractors over inflating house prices to cover their give-aways. High ratio Construction loans on projects with 6 month standing inventory. Last but not least , Appraisers who over-appraise properties in order to do business with these crooked loan brokers
All of these factors created a false economy then
the bubble bursts and you have a multi billion $ fall. YOU JUST CAN'T FIX STUPIDITY
out.