When I heard that the CEO of Miller Brewing Co. said Thursday he sees a trend of consumers buying cheaper beers, I was wondering whether consumers might also be switching not just from more expensive beers to cheaper ones, but from more expensive alcoholic drinks to beer, which tends to be cheaper.Unfortunately for Miller, for which its parent SABMiller PLC reported earnings Thursday, so far the increase in sales of more economic beers has been at the expense of the more expensive ones. So my theory isn't much of one after all. I guess that food and gas still have a higher priority than beer, and we all know how much the price of these have risen lately.
Other than a shift in beer for consumption at home, there's another change in consumer behavior. Americans are going out much less to bars and restaurants and indeed sales of beers to businesses have also dropped.
Meanwhile, a quick look at other beer companies shows that Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BUD) is up over 9% since it reported earnings in late April. The stock is up about 3% in the past year, but down about 1% YTD. Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) shares are up over 10% YTD, up over 26% over the past year and up over 8% since it reported last week.
As the industry consolidation continues and the joint venture between SABMiller and Molson remains on track, BUD -- the No.1 brewer in the U.S. -- is looking a little lonely out there. Despite reported discussions with InBev, nothing yet has been announced. And from its earnings, it seems BUD needs the help. Its sales growth was nothing to write home about compared to that of TAP's, and couldn't manage to offset the rising costs as SABMiller and TAP did.
So unless Americans have a reason to start drowning their sorrows in beer -- and let's hope that doesn't happen -- I don't see great things ahead for beer companies forthe next quarter at least). But I'll bet my money on Molson over Anheuser-Busch any time.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-16-2008 @ 2:29PM
william lindblad said...
It depends on your personal outlook. If you view AB, Miller, Coors,et.al. as stocks to hold as a hedge against an economic downturn there is an excellent chance of being correct. Beer has been around since antiquity and there is nothing to indicate that it is going away anytime soon. It's a staple drink in the U.S. and the large brewers have a range of products from the low to the high. While the lower end may sell better, it's all made in the same place. On the other hand, the Micro's and premium only makers may be in for tough times.