With oil setting yet another record high Friday of $127.43 per barrel and Goldman Sachs renewing traders concerns about inadequate oil supply growth, economists and business executives are becoming increasingly concerned about gasoline prices in the quarters ahead.U.S. gasoline prices are already up more than 100% since 2004 to a national average of about $3.78-3.83 per gallon. (Many high-cost zones, such as New York, Boston, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, are already experiencing prices well over $4 per gallon.) By any gauge, gasoline's surge is one for the record books - - rapidly approaching percentage increases registered during the first two oil shocks, in 1973-74 and 1979-80.
Given the run-up, how much higher can gasoline prices rise?
First, some may ask, why the emphasis on gasoline prices? In a nutshell, economists obsess over gasoline prices because, unlike the rest of the developed world, the United States has out-sized per capita energy consumption. That's econospeak for 'Americans use many more gallons of fuel to commute to work, do errands, etc. than their counterparts in Europe and around the world.'
As a result, large increases in gas prices lower American consumers' disposal income, and it's this disposable income that drives retail sales, and other discretionary purchases. Hence, take away that disposable income, on a sustained basis, and you have a slow-growth U.S. economy, possibly a no-growth U.S. economy.
Gasoline prices: two predictions
With the above as a backdrop, two economists provided BloggingStocks with their probable scenario for gasoline prices for this summer, and a year out.
Economist Glen Langan: "A lot depends on growth in Asia. If it remains at current levels and oil hits $140 this year and $150 in 2009, gasoline in the U.S. will probably average $4.25 per gallon this year and about $4.75 in 2009. But that also assumes continued conservation by American motorists and a shift to more-efficient vehicles. Absent those two and gasoline prices could approach $5 per gallon in 2009."
Economist David H. Wang: "I am slightly more optimistic. I think we will see a reduction not only in U.S. gasoline consumption, but a systematic shift toward the use of other fuels, including increased use of natural gas for home heating and industrial uses. I also think U.S. automakers will finally implement design changes to increase fuel efficiency. So my sense is we're probably going to see a top this year around $4.00-4.25 per gallon, with the price moderating in 2009 to about $3.50-3.75 per gallon."
Gasoline Analysis: Of course, a myriad of international factors (emerging market growth, geopolitics, unexpected production increases/decreases) could influence the price of gasoline in the U.S., in addition to domestic factors. Further, while our economists don't see a return to $3 gasoline, let alone the 'Roaring 1990s' price around $1.50, they did underscore that the nation has the ability to adapt and innovate, and ultimately create a more-efficient and stronger economy, long-term.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-16-2008 @ 7:57PM
william lindblad said...
How high will they go? You posted two different opinions, both of which are not particularly optimistic. Truth is, I am not either but I am practical - and so is OPEC. I think that they will stabilize soon and probably will come down some. My reasoning may sound crazy but is that of logical thinking. As you mention price hikes have been here before and you forgot the aftermath of Katrina. The 73-74 events were reprisal and the shortages in the U.S. were contrived on the part of big oil. Congress did eventually slap them with and excess profits tax. In truth, the oil execs. should have been the guests of the Federal correction system. The 79-80 events were not as serious and eventually caused a glut, which brought prices down - way down. With this in mind you can bet the oil cartel knows when enough is enough and will increase production just to stabilize the price. A sizeable portion of the total increases in fuel are the result of dollar value and pure speculation. I know what I read in all the media hype about consumption in the rest of the world, but that does not justify the hikes, nor the profits. Companies are entitled to make a fair profit but greed that destroys the lives of a vast majority of people is criminal and those that engage in these acts should be treated as such.
5-17-2008 @ 12:01AM
gary said...
THIS SUMS IT UP I THINK!!!!!!!!!!!!
545 People
By Charlie Reese --
Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then
campaign against them.
Have you ever wondered why, if both the Democrats and the Republicans
are against deficits, we have deficits?
Have you ever wondered why, if all the politicians are against inflation
and high taxes, we have inflation and high taxes?
You and I don't propose a federal budget. The president does.
You and I don't have the Constitutional authority to vote on appropriations.
The House of Representatives does.
You and I don't write the tax code, Congress does.
You and I don't set fiscal policy, Congress does.
You and I don't control monetary policy,the Federal Reserve Bank does.
One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one president and nine Supreme
Court justices - 545 human beings out of the 300 million - are directly,
legally, morally and individually responsible for the domestic problems that
plague this country.
I excluded the members of the Federal Reserve Board because that problem
was created by the Congress.
In 1913, Congress delegated its Constitutional duty to provide a sound
currency to a federally chartered but private central bank.
I excluded all the special interests and lobbyists for a sound reason.
They have no legal authority.They have no ability to coerce a senator,
a congressman or a president to do one cotton-picking thing.
I don't care if they offer a politician $1 million dollars in cash.
The politician has the power to accept or reject it.
No matter what the lobbyist promises, it is the legislator's responsibility
to determine how he [or she] votes.
Those 545 human beings spend much of their energy convincing you that
what they did is not their fault.
They cooperate in this common con . . . regardless of party.
What separates a politician from a normal human being is an excessive
amount of gall. No normal human being would have the gall of a Speaker,
who stood up and criticized the President for creating deficits.
The president can only propose a budget. He cannot force the Congress
to accept it. The Constitution, which is the supreme law of the land, gives
sole responsibility to the House of Representatives for originating and
approving appropriations and taxes.
Who is the speaker of the House?
She is the leader of the majority party. She and fellow House members,
not the president, can approve any budget they want. If the president
vetoes it, they can pass it over his veto if they agree to.
It seems inconceivable to me that a nation of 300 million can not replace
545 people who stand convicted -- by present facts - of incompetence
and irresponsibility. I can't think of a single domestic problem that is not
traceable directly to those 545 people.
When you fully grasp the plain truth that 545 people exercise the power
of the federal government, then it must follow that what exists is what
they want to exist.
If the tax code is unfair, it's because they want it unfair.
If the budget is in the red, it's because they want it in the red.
If the Marines are in IRAQ, it's because they want them in IRAQ.
If they do not receive social security but are on an elite retirement plan
not available to the people, it's because they want it that way.
There are no insoluble government problems.
Do not let these 545 people shift the blame to bureaucrats, whom they
hire and whose jobs they can abolish; to lobbyists, whose gifts and advice
they can reject; to regulators, to whom they give the power to regulate
and from whom they can take this power.
Above all, do not let them con you into the belief that there exists
disembodied mystical forces like 'the economy,' 'inflation' or 'politics'
that prevent them from doing what they take an oath to do.
Those 545 people, and they alone, are responsible.
They, and they alone, have the power.
They, and they alone, should be held accountable by the people who are
their bosses - provided the voters have the gumption to manage their own
employees.
We should vote all of them out of office and clean up their mess!
Charlie Reese is a former columnist of the Orlando Sentinel
5-17-2008 @ 9:09AM
Roseann said...
Enough is Enough. When do the workers get a real cost of living raise? This is going to far. It sickens me to think that we can manage to help out other countries but we can help ourselves.
5-17-2008 @ 11:37AM
BillG said...
Price per barrel has increased 71% from a year ago (wikipedia article states that oil was prices at 73.93 a year ago). Price for gasoline has increased 62% from a year ago (according to DOE). There is a wholesale market for gas - according to a NYT article 'Oil Refiners See Profits Sink as Consumption Falls' - 'Oil prices doubled in the past year, while wholesale gasoline prices rose a mere 39 percent.' - so I am not clear on all the particulars. However, it seems that not all of the costs have been passed through to the consumer. The biggest oil companies are not the US companies, but national companies like Saudi Aramco and Venezuela's national oil company. Production at US companies is falling. The market has responded to this fact in its reaction to the profit (and production) report by Exxon - the price per share went down. That means that future profits are in question. As far as the economists projections go - it is already past 4 bucks for reg in SF. When reading projections it is good to look at what was projected in the past and to see if it has panned out. Goldman Sachs is frequently quoted for their projections - they put it at between $150 to $200/bbl in the next six to 24 months. A more pessimistic projection by the oil investment analyst and peak oil guy Matthew Simmons - oil will rise to $300 a barrel or higher by 2013. Others have predicted a drop. Who is right? Look at what they have predicted over time and judge from that.
5-19-2008 @ 8:55AM
Roseann said...
Opps....It sickens me to think that we can manage to help out other countries but we can't help ourselves.
5-24-2008 @ 9:42PM
S.R. said...
Greed, greed, greed!!! By now there should have been a completely different alternative to oil. Of course politicians have no incentive to promote this alternative since many have interests in the petroleum industry. When will the people rise and take control of this country. Why is this country in the hands of the elite few? This country is at a crossroads. The people can choose to make radical changes to their dominant social paradigm or remain enslaved to elitist pigs. Drilling in ANWR and creating new refineries are not the solutions to the oil crisis. Making a few changes in auto designs, etc. isn't enough. This will only reinforce this country's reliance and dependency on oil. Once this country eliminates oil use, the power wielded by greedy political rats will be squashed!!!