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Just how high will U.S. gasoline prices rise?

With oil setting yet another record high Friday of $127.43 per barrel and Goldman Sachs renewing traders concerns about inadequate oil supply growth, economists and business executives are becoming increasingly concerned about gasoline prices in the quarters ahead.

U.S. gasoline prices are already up more than 100% since 2004 to a national average of about $3.78-3.83 per gallon. (Many high-cost zones, such as New York, Boston, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, are already experiencing prices well over $4 per gallon.) By any gauge, gasoline's surge is one for the record books - - rapidly approaching percentage increases registered during the first two oil shocks, in 1973-74 and 1979-80.

Given the run-up, how much higher can gasoline prices rise?

First, some may ask, why the emphasis on gasoline prices? In a nutshell, economists obsess over gasoline prices because, unlike the rest of the developed world, the United States has out-sized per capita energy consumption. That's econospeak for 'Americans use many more gallons of fuel to commute to work, do errands, etc. than their counterparts in Europe and around the world.'



As a result, large increases in gas prices lower American consumers' disposal income, and it's this disposable income that drives retail sales, and other discretionary purchases. Hence, take away that disposable income, on a sustained basis, and you have a slow-growth U.S. economy, possibly a no-growth U.S. economy.

Gasoline prices: two predictions

With the above as a backdrop, two economists provided BloggingStocks with their probable scenario for gasoline prices for this summer, and a year out.

Economist Glen Langan: "A lot depends on growth in Asia. If it remains at current levels and oil hits $140 this year and $150 in 2009, gasoline in the U.S. will probably average $4.25 per gallon this year and about $4.75 in 2009. But that also assumes continued conservation by American motorists and a shift to more-efficient vehicles. Absent those two and gasoline prices could approach $5 per gallon in 2009."

Economist David H. Wang: "I am slightly more optimistic. I think we will see a reduction not only in U.S. gasoline consumption, but a systematic shift toward the use of other fuels, including increased use of natural gas for home heating and industrial uses. I also think U.S. automakers will finally implement design changes to increase fuel efficiency. So my sense is we're probably going to see a top this year around $4.00-4.25 per gallon, with the price moderating in 2009 to about $3.50-3.75 per gallon."

Gasoline Analysis:
Of course, a myriad of international factors (emerging market growth, geopolitics, unexpected production increases/decreases) could influence the price of gasoline in the U.S., in addition to domestic factors. Further, while our economists don't see a return to $3 gasoline, let alone the 'Roaring 1990s' price around $1.50, they did underscore that the nation has the ability to adapt and innovate, and ultimately create a more-efficient and stronger economy, long-term.

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 05:36 PM

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