If you were paying close attention to this column last week, you would have sidestepped some of the pain and misery investors in many of the stocks discussed have suffered lately. Of late, we have seen the general direction of the markets turn positive, even in the face of news to the contrary.
Perhaps it is because investors have an appetite for stocks, since there seems to be few investment alternatives. Real estate is off limits and the yield on bonds and other fixed-income investments is pathetically low.
The theme for the week ahead is SMOOTH SAILING. In this week's column, we delve into some stocks that will be announcing earnings, and that may benefit from the changing tide of investor sentiment. To be sure, there will be several areas of choppiness as we continue to be bombarded by the stormy realities of a turbulent economy.
Monday, May 19
The chart for Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) looks M'm M'm good. Sporting a smooth line with nary a ripple over the past 12 months, management has done a great job at keeping both company earnings and share price up, even in the face of significant food inflation. While shares have been condensing during the past few months, recently they have been rising with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Be on the outlook for earnings of 44 cents per share on revenue expectations of $1.89 billion. Now that I think of it. That's a lot of soup wrapped in tin-plated steel -- one of many materials that has seen its price almost double in the past six months.
Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM) is part of the shipping industry that has been cruisin'. Shares are up from a September 2006 low of $8 to a recent level of $52. After floating down violently during the first quarter of 2008, shares have made a turnaround, as there are high expectations for the dry-shippers. It is curious how a company with such a massive fleet of ships maintains such extreme profitability with oil prices above $120. Monday will set the course as earnings are estimated to be $1.79 per share for the quarter, up from 61 cents in the year-ago period. This is on revenues of only $61 million for a company that now has a market cap of $1.1 billion. If shares do not meet or beat, watch out below!!
While we are out at sea with the shippers, the big daddy DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS) will be coming in with its quarterly numbers after the close. Expectations are running high, and First Call is estimating $4.05 per share, which is a 400% increase from the same period a year ago. The shares have a classical chart formation of a double-bottom with a break above the mid-term resistance. This bullish pattern has had all the makings of a solid run but may hit overhead resistance at this level. (Sorry I can't go into more depth on chart pattern recognition here, but if you're interested in learning more, you could read Chapter 3 of my book, The Disciplined Investor: Essential Strategies for Success.)
Tuesday, May 20
On the sundeck, silicon wafers are drawing in the sun's energy and converting it to a more usable form by products made by China Sunergy (NASDAQ: CSUN). Analysts do not predict that the company will be profitable this quarter, but that does not seem to matter these days as shares are being bid up 50% from a recent consolidation point of $8. Look for an announcement showing a loss of 5 cents per share on $73 million of revenue.
After coming back from a long cruise, many people have thought of going back to living in a factory-built, modular home but did not know where to go for that special touch. Good news, as Palm Harbor Homes (NASDAQ: PHHM) might actually have the answer. Yet, shares have been watered down of late as the housing market has been difficult on all components within the sector. Yes, even the luxury modular home companies. Interestingly, analysts are seeing a loss approaching 34 cents per share on $123 million of revenues.
Wednesday, May 21
When the economy enters a time of recession, shoppers look for bargains. BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) may have just the right bait to bring in the fish as they have 177 warehouse shopping stores in 15 states with a total of 8.8 million members. Sales have been consistent and earnings growth has been strong. With little debt and a chart that is showing a strong base, this could be a winner during this wave of the economic cycle. Watch the earnings release for clues as to the near-term direction. First Call is showing a 27 cents EPS for the period on huge revenue of $2.26 billion.
Ever since Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) announced a partnership with Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM), the tide has been rising for shares. Making new highs on a regular basis, Salesforce has one of the best online contact management solutions available for companies of any size. In the ultimate battle for the desktop over the webtop, Salesforce is a force to reckon with. The company has quarterly earnings expectations of 7 cents, which is sevenfold higher than last year, and revenue that is expected to grow to $235 million for the period. I suppose that is what happens when a company has no competition and a great product.
There will be plenty of other announcements today in the retail sector that will be watched carefully for further clues on the consumer and the general economy. Take note of the following as there has been a good deal of negative sentiment towards this sector:
- Dillards (NYSE: DDS) $0.21 EPS on $1.71 billion of revenue
- Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) -$0.04 EPS on $159 million of revenue
- Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) $0.08 EPS on $1.90 billion of revenue
- Charming Shoppes (NASDAQ: CHRS) -$0.06 EPS on $725 million of revenue
- Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROSS) $0.58 EPS on $1.55 billion of revenue
- Saks (NYSE: SKS) $0.16 EPS on $840 million of revenue
Thursday, May 22
The day is loaded with more retail announcements. The ones to watch include:
- AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN) $0.46 EPS on $593 million of revenue
- Bon-Ton (NASDAQ: BONT) -$2.25 on $715 million of revenue
- Stein Mart (NASDAQ: SMRT) -$0.04 EPS on $366 million of revenue
- Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) $0.25 EPS on $327 million of revenue
- Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) $0.31 EPS on $3.43 billion of revenue
- Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) -$0.10 EPS on $265 million of revenue
- Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) $0.03 EPS on $78 million of revenue
Also look for the earnings from poultry producer Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ: SAFM). The company has been doing well, even into rising corn and feed prices. Estimates are for a loss of 7 cents on $435 million of revenue. Investors may get chicken if they see that the margins have been watered down this quarter. Even so, the balance sheet is strong and the outlook is stable.
Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold positions in some of the stocks mentioned as of the publish date.
Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and author of The Disciplined Investor: Essential Strategies for Success.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-18-2008 @ 12:44PM
william lindblad said...
If b.s. will beget stability I'm for it, but I really don't think that Paulson can walk on water and the rocks in this stream are going to get much harder to see.
5-18-2008 @ 1:10PM
Norman Dreese said...
after years n trusting him i get the feeling that thing are going in the wrong direction n when i ask im told not to worry werr makeing money. I no he is but im not sure sure i am. he swith SMITH BARNEY some how they come into the picture n contrrol him in his buying (ELKS) in it 2 bad n one good) The good one almost makes up for the 2 bad. But some how i feel im paying them FOR what i dont no HELP I think some
5-19-2008 @ 3:13AM
sgentilejr said...
Paulson is doing exactly what he is supposed to be doing.....sound upbeat, positive and confident while the ship is sinking.
5-19-2008 @ 7:43AM
jo said...
BULL SSSSSS
5-19-2008 @ 9:06AM
jo said...
Sure does look like smooth sailing ahead this guy must be RELATED to BUSH?