American Oriental Bioengineering (NYSE: AOB) manufactures
a broad range of prescription pharmaceutical, over-the-counter pharmaceutical and nutraceutical products for the Chinese market, operating from 30 locations in the Peoples Republic. Offerings include treatments for the flu, upper respiratory infections, tonsillitis, incontinence, endometritis, annexitis, PMS and sinus congestion. The firm sells to some 100,000 retail stores, pharmacies, hospitals and independent distributors.
American Oriental surprised the Street earlier in the month, when it reported Q1 EPS of 12 cents and revenues of $38.8 million. Analysts had been looking for 12 cents and $37.9 million. Management also guided FY08 revenues to at least $245.0 million, versus consensus of $227.64 million. The CEO cited synergies from recent acquisitions in support of the optimistic view.
The news
popped AOB shares out of an April "cup" into the May "handle" of a Cup & Handle formation. The price is now showing signs of completing the pattern with a bullish rise from the right-hand side of the "handle".
Brokers recommend the shares with three "strong buys" and two "buys". Analysts expect a 40% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The AOB P/E ratio (17.13), Price to Book ratio (2.61), Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (17.05), Sales Growth rate (50.74%), Operating Margin (32.44%), Net Profit Margin (26.66%), Return on Assets (16.43%) and Return on Investment (17.84%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions hold about 62% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $6.83 and $14.48. A stop-loss of $9.60 looks good here.
Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold a position in the stock discussed above.










Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-20-2008 @ 11:33AM
teeskee said...
Mr. Schutts,
I don't mean to be rude, but I don't think you really know what a cup with handle formation is. First of all it's call a cup because it actually looks like a cup. I've looked at several of your cups and none of them look like cups as none of them have what remotely passes for a left side of a cup. If you'd like to see a cup and what looks like a handle forming look no further than Apple. Just trace from its high of 200 to its low of 120 or so and you have the left side; then trace from 120 to 190 or so and you have the right side. Now as it trades slightly lower a handle may be forming. But if you don't want to take my word for it please see: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle
Furthermore, as you can see, stocks usually break out from handles although not every cup forms a handle; but to say a stock broke out from a cup to a handle just doesn't make sense as far as a cup with handle is concerned. Even your tag line doesn't make sense: how can you say one stock price defines a pattern when in fact the pattern is made by looking at weeks of prices ???
Sorry to be so critical, but I don't want to see people read this and be misled.
Best wishes anyway,
teeskee
5-20-2008 @ 3:15PM
ldschutts said...
Dear teeskee,
In writing these daily observations, my goal is to bring the reader's attention to conditions suggesting the potential for moderate, short-term gains in the featured stocks. The flags, pennants, trading channels, trend lines and wedges I discuss are standard technical patterns that generally match textbook examples. The Cup & Handle formations I sometimes propose are not, as you have correctly observed, the long-term graphs noted in many texts. They are short-term patterns which resemble their longer-term brethren and derive from similar conditions.....and one does indeed see them referred to as Cup & Handle indicators. Of course, I might have extended the AOB graph back another month to define a geometrically more elegant Cup, but the important portion of the graph is the part I did sketch. It represents the sort of Cup-like upsweep in prices and subsequent shallow pull-back that is often followed by another price increase. It is that secondary rise I was attempting to anticipate. In other words, I was trying to "make the call" near the bottom of the Handle. If you prefer to think of the AOB pattern as, say, a flag consolidation following the May 7th pop, well and good. The important thing is to recognize the potential for further price appreciation.
Regards,
Larry Schutts