Almost everyone these days has encountered cancer in one way or another. While the rate of cancer incidence has stabilized to declined since the early 1990s and, with newer and better treatments as well as early detection, cancer death rates have also declined, the war on cancer is still far from won.

It is no surprise, then, that a few days ago, IMS Health (NYSE: RX) -- a provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries -- said that cancer drugs sales will nearly double by the year 2012. Assuming a compound growth rate of 12-15% a year, sales will grow from $48 billion in 2008 to $80 billion by 2012.

The main contributors to growth, according to the study, are an increasing number of patients on chemotherapy, not just in major markets but in emerging markets, too, as well as longer treatment periods for growing numbers of patients. Also fueling growth are the increased use of targeted therapeutic agents, along with first-time innovations coming to the market. Expensive new biotechnology drugs, and the increasing use of combination therapies that contribute to the exploding cost of treatment will also fuel cancer drugs sales growth.

The overall pharmaceutical market grew at a 6.4% pace in 2007, meaning that with its double-digit growth rate, the cancer drug market -- today contributing 17% to global pharmaceutical sales -- will only represent a greater proportion and emphasis. Of course, there will be factors moderating growth, such as drugs losing exclusivity and financial constraints of payers.

Cancer-fighting drugs can reach the market twice as fast as the average medicine, and companies can charge as much as $50,000 for a single course of treatment. It is no surprise then that with more and more drugs coming off patent many pharma companies are turning their attention to cancer. But can it save them?

Only recently, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) has put several key people to head the different segments of its oncology arm, saying the company will focus on increasing the current 5% contribution of oncology drugs to its annual sales. Pfizer has boosted antitumor research 60% since 2005, and has something to show for it with the industry's biggest batch of experimental cancer drugs:18 potential medicines targeted against pancreatic, breast and lung cancers, although it has no oncology drugs awaiting approval now.

Pfizer isn't alone, of course. AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), GlaxoSmithkline (NYSE: GSK) and Novartis (NYSE: NVS) are testing more than a dozen antitumor drugs each and they're not alone.

Still, most cancer drugs in research today are not expected to be blockbusters. While some could bring sales in the billions, most will have sales of a few hundred million at best. This is very different from the many billions in revenue pharmas are used to with blockbusters like Pfizer's Lipitor, a cholesterol medicine that produced sales of $12.7 billion in 2007. Many of these blockbusters, though, are slowly coming off patent, so capturing the oncology drug market that can bring in the billions could be crucial for big pharmas. It is no surprise, then, that many analysts waited last Thursday for the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) abstract report, which includes 5,000 research studies, to try and identify the next potential successes.

The ASCO conference itself will be at the end of the month, May 30-June 2 in Chicago. Many of the studies submitted in the abstract will have updated results then. For now, though, some say that the early winners are Genentech Inc. (NYSE: DNA), Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) and Medarex Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDX). (Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP) look the opposite.)

But Genentech and Celgene already spend a lot on cancer research, and already have blockbuster oncology drugs like Avastin, a treatment for colorectal and non-small cell lung cancers and Herceptin for breast cancer (both Genentech's). The question is where were the big pharmas in all this?

Well, they tried:

• Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) is awaiting approval for Enzastaurin, its non-hodgkin's lymphoma drug late 2010 / early 2011 and for Arzoxifene for osteoporosis and prevention of breast cancer, and also has quite a list of oncology drugs clinical trials going on. The company says a new study showed Alimta delayed growth in lung cancer when used soon after initial chemotherapy. This could support broader use of Alimta, which had $854 million in sales last year.
• Pfizer said that study results across several difficult-to-treat cancers will be presented at ASCO. Most notable, though, is Pfizer's tests for Sutent for use in breast cancer, perhaps competing with Avastin there.
• GlaxoSmithKline PLC (NYSE: GSK) announced that its Tykerb drug combined with Genentech's Herceptin increased progression-free survival in women with HER2-positive, advanced breast cancer to 12 weeks versus 8.1 weeks for Tykerb alone.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY), which co-markets ImClone Systems' (NASDAQ: IMCL) colon cancer drug Erbitux -- another example of a best-seller cancer drug from a smaller company -- was mentioned by 100 study abstracts. As for Erbitux, though, its sales could be hurt from studies that showed the drug is useless in nearly half of colon cancer patients and that now a simple gene test could determine compatibility ahead of time. Amgen's Vectibix will likely be affected by these findings as well.
• Speaking of Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), it also provided an abstract to a study that showed that according to early test results, its experimental drug Denosumab was more effective than Novartis's Zometa in halting cancer's spread to bones and preventing fractures in cancer patients.

Notably missing were Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) and Wyeth Inc. (NYSE: WYE), although it's possible they were hidden somewhere inside the 5,000 abstracts.

Regardless, even the above examples were not the most exciting studies found.

Luckily for cancer patients, drug companies have something to strive for as more of their other blockbuster drugs go off patent and sales decline. With more research & development going into oncology drugs, this could be a win-win situation all around. The question is whether big pharmas are doing enough to move in that direction. It seems that some are and others are not, with Glaxo, AstraZeneca, Novartis and Pfizer, along with smaller Amgen and Lilly, actually poised better than Wyeth and Merck to improve in that market. DNA and CELG have long been oncology favorites, with good reason.

Now if only now a company could find the ultimate cure or vaccine, that'd be great for patients, sales and shareholders!