Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Chronicles of Narnia flick, Prince Caspian, opened on top of the weekend box office to an estimated $56.6 million take at domestic theaters according to Boxofficemojo.com. The media is buzzing with how awful this number is. Well, I'm not sure any of the media outlets I checked actually used the word awful, but I'm using it.
Simply put, the first Chronicles of Narnia movie grossed more than $65 million in its debut weekend, a significantly higher figure than what Caspian captured. Think about this: the first Narnia entry was released in December 2005. Considering that the first film did pretty well, one would have figured that a sequel released a couple years later would have benefited from the high-traffic pre-summer period and that the first weekend would have achieved at least a $70 million+ opening. Never happened. Instead, even though Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man fell to number two, its estimated weekend haul of $31 million seems the bigger achievement by comparison.
So, who's to blame here, if anyone? Should Disney CEO Bob Iger be apologizing to shareholders? Maybe a small apology might be in order. I mean, did any of you out there feel the energy of the marketing campaign behind Caspian? I didn't. Once the early Iron Man buzz left the building, Disney should have rushed in to capitalize on the minds of moviegoers who were now waiting for the next big blockbuster coming down the pike; let's face it, during the summer box-office period, that's what we're programmed to do. Even now, I'm looking forward to the business waiting to be done by Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Disney doesn't have much of a chance to turn Caspian into a super blockbuster if Jones is the hit I think it's going to be. The competition will simply be too much.
At least Disney isn't having as bad a time as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) is with Speed Racer. That's turning out to be a disaster; as it stands now, the film has grossed about $30 million after two weekends. No, seriously, think about it -- $30 million after two weekends. At least Caspian has made more than that in its opening frame. Some are blaming a weak box-office environment for these low numbers; perhaps that is partially true. But it's the job of studios like Disney, News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal to get the people to the multiplexes on the opening weekend. Disney probably could have opened Caspian higher, but maybe it's not too late. Maybe a redoubled marketing effort should be made to ensure a prosperous second weekend; if that fails, then the company should think about keeping the Narnia films for the Christmas season. Oh well; at any rate, I look forward to the coming summer box-office bonanza.
Disclosure: I own shares in Disney, General Electric, and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-19-2008 @ 2:19PM
Brian said...
Maybe it is just because the economy sucks right now and you cannot compare these opening weekends as if they could not be impacted by outside economic factors. Stop whining about movies when unemployment is rising.