The U.S. government now says the price of food will rise 5.5% this year. That revises an earlier estimate of 4.5%. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The forecast released Monday by the Agriculture Department is the third consecutive month the agency has raised its food-inflation forecast."

The number may be too low. The last federal government data showed the cost of food rising more than it had in almost two decades. The prices of rice, wheat and corn are still near all-time highs, and global demand is likely to move those numbers higher. The demand for ethanol is an often-mentioned reason for the price increase in corn. There is little reason to see that changing.

If food costs were going up by themselves, things might not be so bad for American consumers. But consumers are being beaten down by the "triple play" of rising gasoline and food prices coupled with difficult access to credit. Their need for money is rising and their access to it is dropping off.

Food is part of a problem, but only a part. Until the government comes up with a solution, consumer spending is going to be limited to bread and gas.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of theTen Stocks Under $10 letter.