TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says as crude goes higher, it makes more and more sense to go for other energy options. Every day that oil goes up, there is a new set of technologies that had formerly been priced out of the market that comes back to life. Let's take wind. Wind, in itself, just seems so stupid. It needs, well, wind. Much of our country doesn't have enough wind to make this economic. There are only certain regions that can really benefit.
But when oil is at $130, SO WHAT! The parts of the country that have a lot of wind are nuts not to do wind. Wind, when properly integrated into the grid, costs 4 cents a kilowatt. The issue has been shortage of everything that goes into a windmill, because nobody in the chain thought it was worthwhile to mass-produce them. So even though the cost is low, no companies felt it was worth it because the market seemed so niche.
In other words, it was the wind supply chain that was the problem, because we only thought in terms of gigantic plants that created energy. But with nuclear not an option -- never will be in this country, if you ask me -- natural gas falling out of favor post-Katrina as being unreliable, and coal simply intolerable because of the climate problems, wind has become the most natural fuel of all.
But think about all of the things that had to go right before the investment: The technology had to be refined to be sure that the blades were big enough to matter, the turbines and steel towers had to be mass-manufactured, the transmission into the grid had to be refined, and the companies that got into it had to be sure that oil was high enough to sink the cost into the manufacturing of turbines.
All of this had to happen. Anything goes at $130 a barrel. Suddenly little companies like Broadwind (NASDAQ: BWEN) (Cramer's Take) are worth twice what they were when oil was lower.
Of course that kind of move is not sustainable. But what it does speak to is that we are now in the marginal incremental moment where one energy alternative after another kicks in and makes sense.
Suddenly side businesses in wind for Thomas & Betts (NYSE: TNB) (Cramer's Take) and Owens Corning (NYSE: OC) (Cramer's Take) and Trinity (NYSE: TRN) (Cramer's Take) are making more money than their real businesses, which then allows more money to be brought in to further reduce the costs of turbines, which then takes them from being peak-load alternatives to base-load alternatives.
Things that didn't make sense now make sense. And stocks you wouldn't touch are now reasonable investments.
This process is leaving a lot of people behind. They can't figure how natural gas stocks got this high, but that's totally a function of the old 6-to-1 rule. Natural gas almost always trades as a ratio of 6-to-1 -- divide oil by 6 bucks -- so how can you not own Apache (NYSE: APA) (Cramer's Take), Southwestern (NYSE: SWN) (Cramer's Take), XTO (NYSE: XTO) (Cramer's Take), Devon (NYSE: DVN) (Cramer's Take), Ultra Pete (NYSE: UPL) (Cramer's Take), El Paso (NYSE: EP) (Cramer's Take), Anadarko (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take) and so many other little companies.
Same with wind.
Each new dollar in the price of crude is theoretically some amount per share for a wind company. That's why they are so worth focusing on.
Notice I didn't mention solar, in part because solar is not -- other than First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) (Cramer's Take) -- part of the grid equation. You need to either be attached to the grid to become useful or attached directly to a car engine to become useful.
Everything else is a little too one-off for investment and too boutique, so they'll need subsidies to see them through; no government other than Germany will provide those subsidies.
So, every dollar up, wind rides higher.
It's just that simple.
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long El Paso and XTO.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-21-2008 @ 12:17PM
Michael Schneider said...
In regard to both wind and nat gas, the recent T Boone comments (see 2 items in Spotlight section at htttp://www.Barrelomoney.com) were very interesting though focused mainly on the US market as have been most of your comments that I heard anyway. A recent issue of The Economist suggests that China will have to use more wind and nat gas because their pollution problems are so bad. That would really provide a huge lift for many of the wind stocks anyway.
Dr. Michael Schneider runs several Web sites including http://www.Barrelomoney.com.
5-21-2008 @ 12:20PM
william lindblad said...
You are correct on the wind and the Wright Bros. knew exactly where it was (and still is) at. At the moment GE is the player with the technology and resources in the U.S. Spain has quite at bit invested in both wind and solar, but the solar end is not photovoltaic. The Dutch has harnessed ocean currents and Iceland uses GeoThermal in a large manner. In both of the latter, the technology requires certain conditions that are available in the U.S. but would certainly set off environmental issues.
As yet, water seems to be a sleeper and that remains abundant in the form of existing dams that USED to supply power. They are all still there but would require refurbish and investment. Dynamo technology has improved immensely and this could well be an area up and coming. The second benefit is the water itself as this commodity is fast becoming an item of short supply.
5-21-2008 @ 10:36PM
Scooter Griffin said...
I'm an East Texas Independent Producer, since 1987.I am waiting on 1000 HP Drilling rigs, again. Looks like a 2 to 4 month wait. 1500 HP Rigs are BOOKED even longer, 12 months out, drilling the Deep Horizontal Gas Shales. PTEN has 15 new 1500+ new style Flex Rigs SOLD, delivery over the next 12 months. The Big HP Flex Rigs are an absolute must for the Deep Horizontal Shale Gas Play. T. Boone's EXCO has 3 of those new PTEN Flex Rigs Contracted, so T. Boone is certainly Long Nat. Gas. My Pick's:
EXCO-T. Boone's growing this one FAST, another way to fade T. Boone!!
PTEN-Preferred Driller, best Crews & Experience, in Frac Stimulation in the Northeast too(++)
PDC-Filling in the Gaps as a Utility Driller, some diversification.