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Monsanto (MON) driven higher by record fuel prices

MON logoMonsanto (NYSE: MON) shares are trading higher after oil and gasoline prices jumped to record levels yet again today. With oil so expensive, alternative bio-fuels are pushing agricultural futures higher as well, which is good for Monsanto. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MON.

After hitting a one-year low of $58.50 in August, the stock rose to hit its one-year high of $132.36 in April. MON opened this morning at $121.60. So far today the stock has hit a low of $121.23 and a high of $124.91. As of 11:05, MON is trading at $124.34, up 4.44 (3.7%). The chart for MON looks neutral but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $105 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just four weeks as long as MON is above $105 at June expiration. Monsanto would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

MON hasn't been below $105 since March and has shown support around $110 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil starts to relax, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 200-day moving average, which is currently around $102 and rising.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MON.

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Last updated: July 20, 2008: 07:00 AM

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