BloggingStocks

The world's least-respected energy form experiences a revival

Posted May 22nd 2008 5:15PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: International markets, Other issues, Politics, Commodities, Oil

Coal. Detestable coal.

Politically incorrect coal.

The stuff of Dickens' England. Black-lung disease. Strip-mining. And global warming.

Coal is the 'Rodney Dangerfield of energy forms,' because, like the late comedian, it gets no respect.

Have you ever heard of a positive association regarding coal? As a child in the United States, way back in the twentieth century, you dared not misbehave prior to the holidays, lest you get, coal in your stocking.

(No one ever spoke of a reprimand involving 'getting oil in your stocking.' No sir. Oil is considered 'black gold.')

Well, in the near future you and many others may look favorably on collecting coal, and a lot of it, if current trends continue regarding that other notable energy form, oil.

That's because, despite more than twenty years of research pointing to a third oil shock coming that was not due to a peak in oil production (also called 'peak oil') but due to global supply increases not able to keep up with demand increases, the west (and in particular,the United States, which is the world's highest per capita user of oil) did very little to wean itself from it.

A U.S. energy policy miss-step

It didn't take a Ph.D. in quantum physics to foresee the above. Common sense argued that, logically, as large population centers in China and India and other developing markets embraced capitalism following the end of the Cold War, they would buy millions of cars and build thousands of factories, oil use would jump, and so would oil's price.

In the United States, the prudent preparation for this brave new world of oil would have been, at minimum, a national energy policy with increased fuel efficiency for cars/vehicles. Dozens of other tax incentive-based efficiency improvements could also have been introduced, but had the U.S. just increased car fuel efficiency, it would have been much better prepared for what's ahead.

And what is ahead? For one thing, a large increase in coal mining and usage, in all forms, The New York Times reported Thursday. The price of oil is literally reopening old, abandoned coal mines and rejuvenating decaying coal towns, because these coal zones can compete on price with oil again.

Dirty coal is a decidedly negative consequence, economist Glen Langan says, but if only it was the only one. Even more problematic for the west, and in particular for the United States, Langan says, is the current oil market reality: because the U.S. did not take control of its energy consumption during the past two decades, "the market will now regulate consumption, and it doesn't look like it's going to be pretty." Oil, Langan says, with every region of the world competing for the commodity to run its industrial base, "will now rise to the point of demand destruction, the price where individuals and companies start to use less of it."

And Langan's estimate for that demand destruction price for oil?

"Most likely it's about $200-$220 per barrel, but it could be closer to $250," Langan said.

Tags: autos, CAFE, cars, China, climate change, coal, Cold War, emerging markets, energy crisis, featured, gasoline prices, heating oil, heating oil prices, India, miles per gallon, mpg, oil, oil prices, oil shock, OPEC, peak oil, U.S. Department of Energy

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

All contents copyright © 2003-2008, Weblogs, Inc. All rights reserved

BloggingStocks is a member of the Weblogs, Inc. Network. Privacy Policy, Terms of Service, Notify AOL