TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they're lousy, so traders have to turn to things like the oscillator for guidance. Boy, it's tough to find something to like here.
It's tough to even find a thesis.
The litany seems worse than ever: autos falling apart, oil perhaps peaking, volume drying up, mergers falling apart, credit losses back again, lay-offs rising.
To which I say, of course. No kidding. We had a big run up, and when we got there things turned for the worse, not for the better. When that happens you can't fall back on the fundamentals, which are bad and have been bad for what seems like ages, but instead have to fall back on things like the oscillator and the bull/bear ratio. We got very overbought and we lost a lot of bears on that assault on 13,000, and we saw financials, techs, oils, utilities and industrials go for a ride. In the end, even retail had a romp.
Now all of that has to get repealed, even energy for a bit because this last spike to $130 and change was too much too fast even if we ultimately get to this level not far down the road.
I think that until we get to some level that is significantly negative on the oscillator and lose a lot of bulls it doesn't even matter what you buy, you can buy Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take) and Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take), or you can buy Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), you are not going to make any money. And you can lose some.
It's so dicey that only the tobaccos and a couple of the packaged goods stories may hold up. So why even bother.
In other words, it is just the usual end-of-the-world story. Let it play out, until it doesn't, and at lower levels the bargains will be back.
Random musings: Oil is easy at this point. People are either going to change their behaviors and the inventories worldwide will build -- its been made difficult by the Iranian hoarding -- or they won't and gasoline goes to $6.
RELATED LINKS:
Oil's Surge Just Getting Started
Crude Oil Ends Record Five-Day Climb
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-23-2008 @ 12:11PM
Michael Schneider said...
There seem to be many bargains esp. if oil prices can stabilize. Oil has indeed moved up too far too fast and gotten ahead of itself even though the long term trajectory is still up. There are too many things that can happen to moderate oil prices but it would be foolish to be bullish short term here- barring bad news such as a hurricane. The stocks are correcting. I think the play here is to look for companies that may have a competitive advantage with oil at these levels. We can rule out most airlines and casinos and truckers and the stocks that have moved a lot and are likely to correct. That could still give us some good long term plays in health care like Johnson & Johnson which seems at a cheap price. Shorter term some of the utility stocks that have alt energy and haven't moved up that much could be worth looking at here as well- Xcel Energy maybe. It is not the end of the world here and it is a great time to look for bargains. We are seeing a lot of deals actually- it is only a couple of big deals- for Yahoo and BCE that have fallen through. Dana Telsey recently recommended 4 retail stocks (see Spotlight section at http://www.Barrelomoney.com) and those could get more interesting as we head toward the back to school season.
I don't think high oil or food prices will eat up the entire economic stimulus package as some are suggesting. Families get most hit by high food prices but the stimulus rebates give families more money. The mood was too positive and shifted to overly negative following the Fed comments which really were poorly expressed. Instead of closing the door on rate cuts and leaving options available the Fed seems to have slammed the door and locked itself in and hid the key where they may or may not be able to find it if a fire starts or something. That has caused the market to get back to a panicky state instead of going into an orderly correction. This is not good because the wealth effect created by stocks moving higher is important in buttressing a slowing economy.
5-23-2008 @ 1:30PM
kim hong said...
I like your program.
thank you.
5-24-2008 @ 2:03AM
Beltway Greg said...
And conservatives will talk endlessly about how Michelle Obama said some particular phrase that didn't quite jive with their mentality and they'll ride that horse clear into Nov. Oh Mr. Greenspan and President Bush (congress and senate) where did it all go so wrong? I understand that you didn't oppose the Bush tax cuts but of course you had no idea that Curious George would get us into this endless war and spend us half to death and make us more reliant on foreign debt to finance our follies not to mention giving tax cuts to the oil industry. Oddly we've found ourselves in the midst of an economic perfect storm. How can it be that stories appeared in USA Today about problems with sub-prime mortgages but somehow the folks at the Fed never quite got the message. The Fed has run out of bullets; we simply cannot lower interest rates further lest we risk inflation. What to do? If we devalue the dollar the price of oil will continue to rise irrespective of any changes in supply and demand.
And if we attempt to raise rates we could push ourselves into a recession and actually bring about the dreaded deflation. Democrats don't want us to drill; oil companies pay lip-service but little else to alternative energies; Jackson Browne and MUSE got their wish back in the late 70s and we didn't develop nuclear energy; and Americans in general bought SUVs and sucked-up the excess oil during the exact time that the BRIC nations were beginning to develop. Typically Americans got everything they wanted. However, we are no longer the only store in the county. Just exactly how much does Exxon Mobil make on each gallon sold? Did any of our elected officials attempt to ask that question? What are the margins on each gallon served? Could they reduce profit by 30% thereby reducing a $4 dollar/gallon to $2.80 and stay profitable? And let's not get started on education in this country. I have friends, college educated people, who didn't understand that ARMs could and would adjust. People who went in for loans and could've received a fixed rate of around 5% for 30 years but were duped into believing that interest rates would go down forever.
Where will people get the money they need to buy frappacinos? Can America exist simply as a service based economy?
Beltway Greg
5-24-2008 @ 12:11PM
P.J. Messineo said...
Yes folks, high oil prices are affecting the market but even more so, short-sellers are having a hey day being bullish on the market's fall. Last summer the SEC commission opened the door to short selling, day traders etc. by abolishing a rule that trading short was only allowed when the stock was going up. The so-called uptick rule. With this change allowed short-sellers are greasing the market slides and the SEC should re-instate the up-tick rule and send all the gamblers packing for Las Vegas. The market is for investors and not a forum for gamblers. Otherwise maybe there should be a fixed 45% tax on all trades completed in 1 to 2 days. This is only one area the SEC should consider acting on for the good of the economy, the public and America.
5-27-2008 @ 1:15AM
tommy said...
we have not seen enything when gas is 6dollors a gallon.and nobody has a car to drive or a home to live. then people will wake up.and say i am mad as hell and i will not take it enymore.and vote everbody out of office.then we can start over.i will pray for us all.