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General Motors (GM) discloses implications of AXL strike

GM logoGeneral Motors (NYSE: GM) shares are falling after the company announced this morning it expects a loss of $1.8 billion from the recently ended strike by American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AXL) workers. The company also expects a lost production of an additional 230,000 vehicles in the second quarter. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GM.

After hitting a one-year high of $43.20 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.47 in March. This morning, GM opened at $18.31. So far today the stock has hit a low of $17.63 and a high of $18.34. As of 12:10, GM is trading at $17.63, down 80 cents (-4.0%). The chart for GM looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $25 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in four months as long as GM is below $25 at September expiration. GM would have to rise by more than 43% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

GM hasn't been above $25 since February and has shown resistance around $21 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy gets back on track, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance GM might find around $23, where it topped out back in late April.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GM or AXL.

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Last updated: October 15, 2008: 09:38 PM

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