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Under the radar screen, but overly important: Emerging market oil consumption

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Investors and traders know that major news items move markets, and stocks. Big headlines can mean millions, and billions.

Still, to stay in-touch with trends, and the pulse of money, markets, and investment, one has to survey the information landscape thoroughly, and know when a lesser-publicized data point or fact may be indicative of a larger phenomenon -- one that could tell telegraph where markets are headed.

One such data point occurred a few weeks back. It was a little-discussed item: it didn't receive much coverage in the financial press, and it certainly wasn't the lead story on the 'week in review' financial news shows. But it's a telling data point, nonetheless.

In 2008, for the first time in history, the emerging markets of China, India, Russia, and the Middle East will consume more crude oil than the United States, Bloomberg News reported, citing International Energy Agency data.

Those four locales expect to consume 20.67 million barrels per day; the United States, about 20.38 million barrels per day.

The significance? Oil price's, both current and future, is and will be a function of not only U.S. demand, but also emerging market demand. In fact, if current trends continue, a scenario could ensue in which U.S. consumers and businesses cutback consumption considerably, and oil still rises, due to emerging market economic growth and oil consumption. Oil closed Friday up $1.38 to $132.19 per barrel.

Endless summer (prices)

Americans are already getting a taste of the above, this summer. U.S. gasoline consumption has declined for about four months, on a year-over-year basis, but during than time the average U.S. gasoline price has risen about 80 cents to $3.85 per gallon.

It's almost a sort of cruel joke for American drivers -- the basis for their lamentation, "I'm cutting back my driving, why isn't the price of gas dropping?" But it's one of the drawbacks -- one of the initial costs, if you will -- of the rise of the global economy.

Further, it also highlights one the vulnerabilities that always existed in the U.S., due to its unwilling to increase the gas mileage of its auto fleet, and pass a national energy policy aimed at efficiency, conservation, and a reduction in dependence on oil. Perhaps the nation will now summon the will to correct what today's gasoline pumps are telling us was a serious policy error.

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Last updated: November 28, 2009: 03:38 AM

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