Investors and traders know that major news items move markets, and stocks. Big headlines can mean millions, and billions.
Still, to stay in-touch with trends, and the pulse of money, markets, and investment, one has to survey the information landscape thoroughly, and know when a lesser-publicized data point or fact may be indicative of a larger phenomenon -- one that could tell telegraph where markets are headed.
One such data point occurred a few weeks back. It was a little-discussed item: it didn't receive much coverage in the financial press, and it certainly wasn't the lead story on the 'week in review' financial news shows. But it's a telling data point, nonetheless.
In 2008, for the first time in history, the emerging markets of China, India, Russia, and the Middle East will consume more crude oil than the United States, Bloomberg News reported, citing International Energy Agency data.
Those four locales expect to consume 20.67 million barrels per day; the United States, about 20.38 million barrels per day.
The significance? Oil price's, both current and future, is and will be a function of not only U.S. demand, but also emerging market demand. In fact, if current trends continue, a scenario could ensue in which U.S. consumers and businesses cutback consumption considerably, and oil still rises, due to emerging market economic growth and oil consumption. Oil closed Friday up $1.38 to $132.19 per barrel.
Endless summer (prices)
Americans are already getting a taste of the above, this summer. U.S. gasoline consumption has declined for about four months, on a year-over-year basis, but during than time the average U.S. gasoline price has risen about 80 cents to $3.85 per gallon.
It's almost a sort of cruel joke for American drivers -- the basis for their lamentation, "I'm cutting back my driving, why isn't the price of gas dropping?" But it's one of the drawbacks -- one of the initial costs, if you will -- of the rise of the global economy.
Further, it also highlights one the vulnerabilities that always existed in the U.S., due to its unwilling to increase the gas mileage of its auto fleet, and pass a national energy policy aimed at efficiency, conservation, and a reduction in dependence on oil. Perhaps the nation will now summon the will to correct what today's gasoline pumps are telling us was a serious policy error.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-24-2008 @ 1:39AM
Ray said...
It's all utter nonsense! There is no shortage whatsoever, none. The rich of this world having made terrible losses on the NYSE because of housing foreclosure markets, housing development markets, low value of US dollar, so they, the rich, have now found a way to line their pockets. They are doing so by manipulating & stimulating the NYSE's commodities market. Wherein they set up false shortages of supply. Just like the Jews do with the diamond market. If all of the available diamonds were put on the market, diamonds would be so inexpensive it would pitiful. There are 300,000 ton tankers arriving at our ports everyday. Wake-up America, there is absolutely no shortages whatsoever!
5-24-2008 @ 11:09AM
william lindblad said...
The present hikes in oil related products are the direct result of the sub-prime mess. The foolish and greedy lending practices that provided the financing to those that could not afford to re-pay. This idiocy caused severe problems in the credit market and forced rate cuts which devalued our currency. Since oil is traded in dollars, we all know the result. The price is really a shared problem, with housing and credit being part, and manipulation of refinery output on the part of big oil. There is NO shortage, but there IS worldwide demand.
If these two factors were removed, a price reduction of about 60 cents would result but the price of fuel would still be quite high in relation to the balance of the economy. I think that all should keep in mind that while we are paying-so are they. India is way behind China in both vehicles and roads. At China's present rate of progression they will overtake the miles of paved roads that comprise our interstate system in about 10 years. That means that they have a lot of vehicles and will be using more and more fuel, but as it costs there also it will also damage their economy. Given technological development this "oil crisis" may be a blessing in disguise as it will fast track other possibilities such as electric and/or solar. At some point in the near future the U.S. will have to wean itself of the massive oil dependency. We are where we are because Congress dropped the ball in 1974 and the public gave them it's blessing. In the U.S. the mentality has always been for a "quick fix" with little regard to looking forward. Oil is now the headlines, but fresh water will be next. The energy act of 1992 mandated water conserving plumbing devices and that is where this ended. We are fast approaching a water resource problem in many areas of this country, yet this is mostly ignored. When this bites the effect will be far worse than oil.
5-24-2008 @ 1:22PM
Kent said...
I made some calculations. The U.S. consumes 8.5 billion brls of crude/year. The emerging markets (formerly "developing countries") are just short that at 8 billion brls based on Joe's figures. This tells me the emergers will eventually consume more than us, putting the crimp on supply as I figure OPEC won't increase production in the near term. We need alternative fuels to make crude equivalent to the "horse-and buggy" fuel.
5-28-2008 @ 4:30PM
bcubbedge said...
Ray, you are a bigot as well as misinformed. The American dollar has tanked as a result of the mortgage crisis. If you think there is no world shortage, then you deserve what you've gotten. World demand has, this quarter, finally outstripped world production. And, as American demand lessens, the world demand will subsume the void left by the US in the world market. There is no hope but an alternative. There are too many people in the world and not enough oil to go around. But, continue with that line of reasoning Mr. Ray. Its cretins like you what will make me a very wealthy man.