When oil was at $65 a barrel, almost no one believed it would double. There were a few nuts making the case, but they were ignored like Galileo was when he said the Earth moved around the sun.
Now, it is hard to find analysts who do not believe oil is going to move over $140 a barrel, and, perhaps above $200. Their reasoning is sound enough. Demand in emerging nations like China and India is still increasing. While crude use in the U.S. may be off slightly, it's not off enough to matter. Supplies may be drying up as fields in the Middle East, Mexico, and Russia age. A political catastrophe in Nigeria or Venezuela could cut production.
Against all that, a case for a sharp drop in oil prices is quietly forming and its logic is powerful but poorly understood.
The first argument that oil is too high is that it has been pushed up in part by speculators rushing to cover bets that crude will fall. It is a bit like a "short squeeze" in stocks. Once the "covering" is done, oil prices will face less pressure on the upside.
Perhaps the strongest rationale for a drop in crude is that supply is more abundant than it seems. Petróleo Brasileiro has found what is probably the largest deposit of crude uncovered in the past 40 years. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription requited), the field could "contain about 33 billion barrels of oil." In the U.S. there are debates about letting oil companies drill on previously protected land and offshore locations. In addition, technology advances are helping get more oil out of aged deposits.
In Asia, particularly China, the governments are not willing to subsidize gas and diesel prices, at least to the extent they have in years past. State-owned companies would buy crude at high prices and then sell the by-products dirt cheap to keep cars and trucks on the road. It was a way to fuel economic expansion, but the practice is becoming too expensive as crude sits above $130. If fuel prices in China and India move up as the central governments back off, demand will drop, perhaps by a lot.
The reasoning about tapping biofuels and solar energy, and increased use of nuclear and coal, to cut oil demand has been around for nearly a decade. When oil was at $50, no one thought that these businesses could do well. Either the technology was too new or citizens would not accept reactors filled with uranium sitting just a few miles away. But, the sight of the gallows focuses the mind. Paying $100 to fill-up a car with gas has started to become a real hardship.
The sun moved around the Earth until it didn't. Oil will go up until it doesn't.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
5-25-2008 @ 11:36AM
moonie said...
Demand our own drilling start a national protest vote the democrats out they're the ones that are stopping our own drilling go figgure!!call congressmen the dems especially,call them day and night have bumper stickers made DEMAND IT! only way folks
5-25-2008 @ 11:40AM
Tim Ewell said...
Could it be that cold fusion is just around the corner and the oil producing countries and oil companies are getting the most out of what they have before oil becomes a much less needed resource?
5-25-2008 @ 11:51AM
william lindblad said...
The last line contains the answer in the word "hardship"however, while the price of fuel will come down, so will the economy. In previous posts I have stated that China and India also see the word hardship, along with the rest of the world. It is already the case in Iran where oil is plentiful and the move to raise prices was not well received. The price of oil is all the headlines and topic of discussion, what is being neglected is the full impact of this situation throughout the entire economy. At least one-third of every barrel goes to products un-related to fuel and they will have no course but up. Agriculture uses fuel for much more than harvesting and planting and this is already reflected in grocery prices and will continue to rise. When crops cost more, livestock feed costs more. We are a nation of imports and those producers will soon have the same situation and have to raise price. With each passing day the U.S. consumer had to make more and more bugetary changes. Europe uses extensive farm subsidies and that will be effected. They have an extensive public transport system which will help offset the impact, but they will not escape unscathed. This new oil crisis will take time to play out, but not before it devestates the entire world economic structure. Ultimately, it will come down but not before it causes a depression.
The root cause was sub prime and housing greed. What we are now encountering are the domino effects.
5-25-2008 @ 12:02PM
Sheldon L said...
Cold fusion is not around the corner Tim unless you take 20 years to get around that corner.
Crude oil is not going to $200 per barrel as some have fained. A lot of energy alternatives plus walking and bicycles will make a big comeback before then.
We should drill off shore for oil and gas.
5-25-2008 @ 12:22PM
sgentilejr said...
There is NO OIL STORTAGE.
In fact the supply has increased every year with new discoveries every day. It's all hype to drive the prices up.
OPEC cut back oil production by 10% last year because they cannot sell all they can produce. Bush invaded Iraq because "Saddam was selling TOO MUCH oil...more than he was allowed to sell".
Saddam was keeping oil prices down and they had to get Saddam to stop selling too much oil. Mission Accomplished.
5-25-2008 @ 12:24PM
sgentilejr said...
Cold fusion may be decades away....but geothermal energy is here today.We are now tapping the heat from our planets inner core to generate more and more electricity every year at low cost and without creating pollution.
5-25-2008 @ 12:56PM
hdrydercoleman said...
Some very inteligent post on this site. Lots of food for thought.
5-25-2008 @ 3:19PM
Kent said...
I believe if oil heads for $150 and up, the government will intervene which would have an adverse affect on oil speculation. It would be a return to war-time economy through rationing and price controls until alternative fuels are made available. A disaster for our stockmarket and economy follows, but it forces us to bite the bullet once and for all.
5-25-2008 @ 8:15PM
Greg said...
Once oil production begins to diminish it will continue to do so, no matter where or how much we drill. We've discovered the big, easy to drill fields. Those that are left bring little more supply on line and take time to develop. While they are being developed existing field's output is falling. It's now an impossible race to replace falling production, never mind increase production. Your government can't save you; your mothers can't save you. You gotta save yourselves. Conserve; dump your gas guzzlers; turn down the thermostat. Best of all: invest in alternate energy. Put your money where it will give you big returns and provide energy for your life--solar, wind, hydrogen. Or, just sit back and b***h about how unfair life and the Democrats/Republicans are to you and listen to your lives flush down the drain.
5-25-2008 @ 8:58PM
Snoburd said...
Why must we cling to fossil fuels? Must be we're afraid to breathe clean air and stop global warming? Time for a "go to the moon" type program for alternative energy with aggressive goals. It's been over twenty five years since the gas lines that should have signaled future trouble.Much of the tech is available now while other ideas can be developed with money and determination. It's a can do and a must do and an asap do.
5-26-2008 @ 4:52AM
rawcourage said...
McIntyres logic is not too good. The sun and oil don't mix. Oil and industry will be here for a long time to keep your butt warm , get you to work, provide thousands of by products etc. The price of oil will only keep going up one way or another just like it did this past year. The world has a great thirst for oil and cannot be quenched.
5-26-2008 @ 4:59AM
rawcourage said...
going to europe or asia for a vacation? Planes use an enormous amount of fuel think twice about this
5-26-2008 @ 6:06AM
al coholic said...
If prices for oil stay up payoffs for investments in alternative home energy will become economically feasible. Maybe instead of producing cars that run with electricity from the grid we should think bigger. Why not eliminate the grid. It wouldn't surprise me if ten years from now a large number of houses had their own efficient fuel cell generating plants in their back yards.
By the way it was Copernicus who is credited with dispelling the myth that the sun revolves around the earth.
5-26-2008 @ 2:25PM
kbizzle said...
honestly i think this is all a load of B.S. we have known about global warming since i was born(1987) and still havent done much, wasted money on wars, and other contries(iraq) and look what happened our economy is in the dumps and not looking any better and why was bush voted for a second term? all in all it has been a slew of horrible spending in our government for the last 8 yrs and we still are"making progress" in a country that took us what 4 days to take over and what would you know they play a role in the oil market too. so why have gas prices continued too rise and automobile tech just been a "look what we can do" at the auto shows year after year? if we really want a change gas stations need to be updated (ethonol is rare at gas stations in my city periiod) and we need to stop twiddling our thumbs saying "you first" when it comes to tech that we already have that could make a huge change!
5-27-2008 @ 10:44AM
W. B. Wilhite said...
Newly discovered oil sources will take a while to develop.
To drill anywhere in the U.S., oil companies face protracted and expensive battles.
Technological advances will help squeeze more oil out of old and aging fields, but that has limits - there is the law of diminishing return.
Regardless of subsidies or costs, Asians will get wealthier and thereby able to compete for resources. Americans must get used to that.
As fuel prices rise, consumption will become cautious and conservative. That will be true everywhere. It is a balanced equation. Americans must still make do with less and costlier fuel.
Alternative energy sources will take a while to develop. Older sources such as coal or nuclear face protracted and expensive battles.
The price of oil may moderate short term, such as the next decade or so. But farther out, the price of oil will be inflationary and economically harmful. Adjustments will be painful and slow. The future remains uncertain and unpredictable. Anything is possible at this point.
5-27-2008 @ 7:59PM
Stevoe said...
Make areal impact. Do as our grandfathers and great-grandfathers did. Go to work, go to church ,and then stay home. We have one huge advantage over our forefathers---the internet!!! Go surfing and use the postal service! Gas would drop like a brick.
5-28-2008 @ 9:54AM
John said...
Brazil would be flat-out nuts to develop its new find if the price is going to be a meager $65 a barrel.
That's $200-plus stuff. Brazil can sit on it for decades. They have sugar cane. It's renewable. They don't need no stinkin' black gold, and they don't really need the money.
5-29-2008 @ 1:47PM
joe said...
The price of oil will come down when all the anal-ists stop telling the traders that it will go up for ever. Just like the housing market. Everytime there is some god news like increasing supplies because people are driving less, some smart ass anal-ist wants to make a new pediction about how high the price is going to go. It's all about Tulips.
5-29-2008 @ 5:05PM
Alex J said...
Although we'll probably get some temporary reprieve, by the time new supplies are brought online, other reserves may have declined in output and overseas demand will likely be higher than ever. With such limited information on actual reserves and the economics of tapping them out, it's difficult to predict the next several years. But it's likely that the overall trend is up, as it becomes increasingly expensive to meet growing demand. There are several good arguments for improving overall efficiency and transitioning out of the fossil era, but it probably can't happen overnight. So now's a good time to get a real start.
6-02-2008 @ 1:01AM
Ronsonit said...
Funny how our refining capacity decreases and the price goes up. In any industry that experiences continuing growth, competition increases to meet the demand. When the middlemen choose to squeeze a bottleneck on the flow to increase their profits while minimizing their expenses, they will see short term gain and render themselves obsolete. The consumer will find another way to get their needs met either by buying directly from the producer or finding another means to accomplish the task anyway.