Guess what? The Fed's interest rate cuts are hurting more than they're helping. Since August 2007, the Fed has cut interest rates from 5.25% to 2%. It thought that these cuts would help the housing market and unfreeze the credit markets. But all it's accomplished has been to fuel inflation thanks to a dollar that's lost 72% of its value since January 2001 when it traded at 92 cents to the Euro compared to $1.58 today. Have you been to a gas station or supermarket recently?
So this morning's report from Reuters -- that home prices fell five times faster than during the last housing recession -- did not come as great news. Specifically, single-family homes plunged a record 14.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier, marking a pace five times faster than the last housing recession, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller national home price index. Economists expected prices for the 20-city index to fall 2.0% on month and 14.0% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the Fed's interest rate cuts don't seem to be helping much. That's because they don't treat the basic problem at all -- they're just fueling inflation. The basic problem is that banks have hundreds of billions of junk -- $500 billion in Level 3 assets to be technical about it -- on their balance sheet and they can't raise enough capital to write off those lousy assets. So they aren't lending to consumers, businesses or each other.
By the way, do you know who was president during the last housing recession? George Bush. Quite a legacy for that family, for America, and for the next president...
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-27-2008 @ 11:33AM
W. B. Wilhite said...
It's likely that the housing prices would have fallen deeper and faster without the support of lower rates. The best or worst is yet to come. Home owership is the foundation of most American wealth. Without it, everything else is worthless. Some inflation will be necessary to salvage whatever wealth Americans have left.
5-27-2008 @ 12:09PM
Kent said...
No matter what the Fed did, housing prices had to come down. Too many people starting buying houses since Greenspan started to crank down rates in late 2000.
And the decline in prices is nothing new. My parents bought their house in 1964 for $31,000. The sellers bought the house in 1959 for $36,000. That's a loss of almost 14% over 5 years, and $5000 would have bought a loaded Cadillac in '64.
5-27-2008 @ 2:49PM
william lindblad said...
Historically, economic bumps are a factor of the human race. Some big, some small and the current has the earmarks to rival 1893 and 1930's. We could blame low interest and cheap money but it's simply people and pure greed that is the culprit. I prefer to put the blame mainly on the Fed and the financial sector of Congress as they were the main watchdogs of our economy. If there is any intelligence in the voting public they should make some major changes come November.
Excellent chance this may happen as I feel that we will be in a full blown depression by that time.